Combined Delphi method - Innovative management

The combined Delphi method

The Delphi method is a forecasting method in which direct communication between team members is excluded during the research process and an individual survey of experts is conducted using questionnaires to find out their views on future hypothetical events. Its brief description was given in subparagraph 2.1.2. The name of this method was obtained from the name of the famous in the ancient world oracle of the Delphic temple (Delphic oracle).

The main features of the Delphi method are as follows:

• a complete rejection of personal contacts between experts interviewed on a specific issue;

• Providing experts with the necessary information, including exchanging it between them after each round of the poll;

• Ensuring the anonymity, reasoning and criticism of evaluations.

The goal of the Delphi method is to obtain predictions or a list of potential consequences of solving a problem with a much greater degree of reliability than in an analysis conducted by one specialist. Survey of experts is carried out using questionnaires, i.e. special questionnaires. The survey is conducted in several rounds with the processing of the results of the questionnaire in each round and informing experts about these results. This allows experts to take into account circumstances they have neglected or are not aware of.

In the process of applying the combined Delphi method, a script is also compiled. The scenario describes the general opinion of experts on the history of the problem, its current state and forecasts for the future. The task of the scenario is to identify the key changes occurring in this problem, which will allow all factors influencing the behavior of the system to be divided into basic and secondary, formalize the concept of "system state" and predict changes in the main and secondary factors of the development of the system as a whole.

The complete description of the system obtained in this way, together with the estimates of the probabilities of its various development paths, allows us to determine the needs of the system resulting from the desire to provide some concrete path for its development. This allows us to obtain the main result of the scenario - the formulation of the main goal of the system. The scenario serves as the basis for the second stage - the compilation of the goal tree.

The target tree is a normative method for identifying system functions, the main content of which is the way to move from a global goal to a set of smaller subgoals. The logical basis of this method is a conjunctive representation of the goals of the subsystem in terms of a lesser degree of generality.

The general scheme of the combined Delphi method is shown in Fig. 2.7. The construction of the goal tree ensures the coordination and alignment of the objectives of the plan, not only qualitatively, but also allows for some quantitative assessment of their importance to achieve the corresponding higher-level objective. This task is solved on the basis of expert assessment methods, specially developed for rating and ranking purposes. The criteria for the various levels of the target tree are found from the script. For each level of objectives there may be different criteria for their evaluation. Experts can discuss scenarios and criteria with each other, but they have to put the coefficients themselves. Assignment of importance factors can be carried out in several stages. The number of stages depends on the qualifications and experience of the experts.

General scheme of the combined Delphi method

Fig. 2.7. General scheme of the combined Delphi method

The assessment of the state of development and the timing of its completion is made by the method of expert assessments. The most commonly used factor is the "state-term."

Method for determining the coefficient "state-time" includes five steps.

1. Theoretical research.

2. Search Engines.

3. Technical developments.

4. Designing.

5. Production of the finished product.

The expert should indicate at which of these stages, in his opinion, is the given development and what time it will take to perform each of the subsequent stages.

A table with the following form is used for polling (Table 2.3).

Table 2.3

Term Definition Table & quot; Status-Term & quot;

Development ethanes

Theoretical studies

Search Engine Development

Technical developments

Design development

Production of the finished product

Status-period (month)

-

3

2

2

1

In the above table, the expert points out that the estimated subsystem is at the stage of exploratory development, which is designed for a three-month period, followed by technical developments within 2 months, design - within 2 months. and production of the finished product within 1 month. Thus, the total period for obtaining the finished product according to the expert evaluation is 8 months (3 + 2 + 2 + 1). [2].

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