System and content of economic and geographical forecasts
The system of economic-geographical forecasts includes a set of private forecasts aimed at studying certain aspects of the territorial organization of society and the prospects for the development of individual branches of material production and the non-productive sphere. The economic-geographical forecast has a systemic character, since its object is complex territorial systems, which consist of a multitude of functional subsystems and structural entities. They have a certain freedom of functioning and development, which must be taken into account in developing the forecast.
Private economic-geographical forecasts are the most common in modern geographic, economic and social studies, since along with purely scientific significance they play a large practical role in anticipating many aspects of the territorial organization of the economy and the population. They contribute to a deeper study of the current state of socio-economic objects and processes and the rationale for their future development.
The following forecasts are for private economic-geographical: use of natural resources; scientific and technical progress; development of individual branches of the national economy (industry, agriculture, transport, etc.) and interindustry complexes; development of territorial socio-economic systems of different rank; demographic; economic development of the territory; recreational; functioning and development of industrial and social infrastructure; nature protection; development of internal and external social and economic relations, etc.
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An important place in the system of private economic and geographic forecasts is taken by forecasts of the use of natural resources. They are aimed at determining the main directions for the development and use of the natural resource potential of territorial socio-economic systems different hierarchical level. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of involving new types of natural resources as a result of geological discoveries, improving the technical and technological bases for the extraction and processing of mineral resources, the integrated use of raw materials and fuel.
The significance of these forecasts is determined, firstly, by the significant impact of natural resources on the development and efficiency of production, its specialization, size, structure, transport costs; second, the need to use resources of lower quality and located in hard-to-reach areas; thirdly, a change in the degree of dependence of social production on the availability of natural resources.
The initial stage of forecasting the use of natural resources is their economic evaluation. The content of the economic evaluation of natural resources is the regular territorial differences in the natural properties of these resources and their sources for the productivity of social labor, as well as differences in the volume of resources. The criterion is the comparative cost-effectiveness of using this resource source or their territorial combination. The main indicators of the economic estimate are the economic indicators of the production of primary products obtained as a result of the use of the estimated resources.
At the next stage, the dynamics of the use of various types of natural resources are analyzed, modern and promising conditions for the exploitation of natural resources are identified and the needs of individual branches of the national economy are determined in specific resources: territories, fuel, raw materials, water, etc. For this, , allowing to compare the availability of resources and their consumption.
The forecasts for the use of natural resources are linked forecasts of economic development of the territory. Their significance is due to a significant decrease in stocks, deterioration of the quality of natural resources in the old industrial areas and the non-renewability of many of them. Therefore, to ensure the current and future needs of the country in certain types of resources, forecasts of economic development of new territories, including hard-to-reach areas, are needed. These forecasts rely on a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the natural and resource potential of the territory and provide for the stages, types, routes and development bases, as well as options for further socio-economic development of the territory under development.
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Recreational forecasts are aimed at justifying the development of recreation and tourism and related infrastructure. The complexity of recreational forecasting lies in the need to comprehensively take into account the multicomponent structure of recreational facilities, which includes natural, economic, social elements. When forecasting the development of these objects, it is necessary to take into account the dynamics of anthropogenic change in the natural environment, recreational "capacity" territory, availability of facilities and degree of satisfaction with rest.
Environmental Forecasts are based on the results of forecasts for the development and placement of individual sectors of the national economy, the resettlement of the population, the development of natural complexes. They are based on assessing the dynamics of pollution of land and water resources, the atmosphere with industrial waste, taking into account the elasticity and capacity of landscapes, their stability and the ability to self-purification and self-repair. In these forecasts, there is an expression of a system of positive and negative environmental impacts at a certain point in time. The result of forecasts of environmental protection is the justification of ways to reduce pollution by optimizing the location of industrial enterprises, the introduction of low-waste technologies and treatment facilities.
Scientific and technical forecasts. Forecasting the development of science and technology plays an important role in justifying the development of the national economy of the country. From the acceleration of the rates of scientific and technological progress, the increase in the efficiency of social production, the rationality of territorial organization of the economy, the optimality of the use of natural resources and the protection of the environment depend. There are three directions of NTP forecasts in modern geographic, economic and social studies. The first is the forecasts of the development of science as the most important sphere of human activity, the basic fundamental and applied research, the most progressive for the future. The second is the forecasts of the development and introduction of the achievements of scientific and technical progress in the national economy. The third is the forecasting of the social consequences of scientific and technical progress in various areas of public life.
Forecasts of the territorial organization of the productive forces of economic areas are widespread in modern economic and geographical studies. Traditionally, the consideration of economic regions of different hierarchical rank is completed by justifying the prospects for the development of the objects and processes under study. The main purpose of this type of forecast is to substantiate the optimal territorial organization of the regional economy, at which maximum economic efficiency of production would be achieved. Development of this economic-geographical forecast begins with an analysis of the natural and production potential of the region, the identification of disproportions in the location of individual enterprises. To substantiate the prospects for the development of the region's economy, it is necessary to study its state and dynamics (growth rates, structural changes and shifts, reproduction processes, the volume and structure of investments, etc.). It is envisaged to increase the efficiency of production through the introduction of new technology and new technologies, other achievements of scientific and technological progress, processes of concentration, cooperation, combination, intensification of production. The subject of the forecast is the improvement of territorial proportions based on the scale of the growth of enterprises, industrial centers, and TPK, which are based on determining the order of development of new mineral deposits, territorial shifts in the allocation of productive forces and linking with other types of forecasts.
This forecast is linked to TPK development forecast. Its main goal is to disclose probabilistic variants of TPK development and formation of territorial links and relationships between elements, structural formations, functional subsystems of the complex on certain time intervals. One of the main tasks of forecasting the development of the WPK is to justify the purpose of their functioning, to identify ways and means to achieve the goal. The goal is not only economic, but also social and environmental components. A reliable forecast for the development of the TPK should be based on a study of the trends in the development of the economy of the whole country and take into account the possibilities for improving territorial proportions and economic ties between regions.
One of the types of private economic-geographical forecasting can be called forecasting the development of interbranch complexes and individual branches of the national economy. This type of forecasting is aimed at perspective substantiation of proportions and interrelations between internal stages consecutive processing of raw materials and fuel into finished products, between the main, auxiliary and service industries. The result of the forecast is the determination of the best options for the development of the economy of the region on the basis of the complexity of the use of raw materials, the degree of utilization of industrial waste, the economic efficiency of production through interconnected and interdependent location of enterprises.
Forecasting the location of individual branches of the national economy is carried out in the following sequence: 1) the choice of the criterion of optimality or objective function; 2) determining the system of indicators required for the forecast; 3) formulation of conditions and constraints in accordance with the needs and available resources.
As the criterion of optimality, either the indicator of the minimum of costs or the maximum of the effect is most often used. Development of options for the development of industries and individual enterprises includes many aspects: changing production capacity, specialization, organization of labor and production; change of technological processes; combination and cooperation; position in relation to sources of raw materials, fuel and energy; ways of using natural, material and labor resources; reconstruction, etc.
Forecasts of population and labor force dynamics are based on demographic indicators characterizing the age-sex, social, occupational structure of the population, natural and mechanical movement of the population. Forecasting of labor resources is based on an analysis of their reproduction and movement, the degree of employment of the population, the level of qualifications and vocational training, distribution by branches of the national economy, the direction and intensity of migration flows. Using the balance method, the availability and requirements for labor resources are compared both in the whole country and in individual regions.
Predicting settlement systems is aimed at optimizing their territorial organization. This takes into account the possibility of purposefully regulating this process in accordance with the task. Optimal resettlement should promote a harmonious combination of settlements of different sizes and functional types, smoothing out differences between large and small cities. An important aspect of forecasting is the disclosure of the relationships between the population and settlement systems with other components of territorial systems: natural, industrial, infrastructure, environmental, recreational, etc., which will allow achieving a certain efficiency in the development of the economy and the population. Forecasting should take into account the natural and economic prerequisites for the development of settlement systems: the capacity of the territory for industrial and civil construction, mineral resources, water availability, available material and technical base, the capacity of transport routes, etc.
Social Forecasts of District Development are related to the study of the social environment of people's lives. They are aimed at improving the proportions between regional social consumption and production, the definition of scientifically based norms of the needs of the population, the identification of trends in the changing conditions and living standards of the territorial communities of people. Social projections are based on the existing material, social and cultural potential and indicate ways to enhance its use. They are based on the identification of trends and the prediction of changes in the social structure, conditions and quality of life of people and should be linked to other types of private forecasts: demographic, economic, investment, natural resource, recreational, etc.
Forecasts for the development of service and social infrastructure are based primarily on regulatory methods of forecasting. They take into account the growth rates of various types of services, the accumulated social and infrastructural potential, the modern provision of the population with cultural and household items, options for the functioning and development of trade, public transport, housing and communal services, public education, science, culture,/p>
The results of private economic and geographical forecasts are of independent importance for improving the territorial organization of society, in the practice of territorial management and design. In addition, they are an important basis for the development of a integrated (integrated) economic-geographical forecast . The latter is not just the sum of particular forecasts, but their integration (synthesis) with the receipt of a qualitatively new forecast. The process of integrating private forecasts is carried out by coordinating their scales, timing, and results for developing strategic directions for the development of territorial population systems and economies of different hierarchical levels. In doing so, they proceed from the thesis that only forecasts of the same scale can be synthesized and compatible, i.e. Those whose objects have a common nature. The complex forecast is aimed at studying and foreseeing the development of territorial socio-economic systems as integral, functionally and structurally interconnected entities.
Integral forecasts are the information basis for the development of integrated targeted programs for the development of regions, economic regions and the TPK. They contain data on the volume of capital investments, on the need for financial and labor resources. In modern conditions, comprehensive programs for territorial development include a clear justification for the construction of objects of market specialization, the creation of transport and communication systems, energy supply, development of the resettlement system, environmental protection measures and rational use of natural resources.
Currently, the Government of the Russian Federation considers the development and location of the productive forces of the regions of the country and indicators of socio-economic development for each subject of the Federation. Territorial complex programs include the target, consolidated, sectoral, territorial, organizational sections and consist of the following subprograms: the development of new territories, the transformation of the economy of the developed regions, the formation and development of the TPK, the resolution of certain issues on the territory (economic, social, infrastructure development, ). An important component of these programs is the forecasting of social reproduction, which at the regional level includes the renewal and expansion of productive assets, material reproduction in the reserve of local interbranch complexes, reproduction of the population and labor resources, reproduction of material, social, cultural goods and services,
An important part of the development of targeted integrated regional development programs is the system of economic and mathematical models that reflect the multivariate implementation of individual stages of the program, as a result of which optimal options can be determined. These models are conditionally divided into external, internal and combined. External models are oriented to the national rates of change in production and labor productivity, the supply of energy, raw materials and materials in a centralized way. Domestic models take into account natural and labor resources, fixed production assets and investment. Combined models take into account both external and internal factors of production development.
The results of long-term socio-economic forecasting are reflected in the compilation of targeted integrated programs for the development of regions, economic regions and the TPK . The development of these programs is carried out in several stages.
1. Analysis of the territorial organization of productive forces and regional socio-economic problems. At this stage, the people's economic functions of the regions are determined, the conjuncture of the internal and external markets, and problematic situations arising in economic regions and regions are analyzed.
2. Determination of the development goals of economic regions and TPK, arising from the contradictions of internal development and key economic problems. This involves building a program goal tree, i.e. definition of the ultimate goal and goal of the first, second, third order, etc.
3. The study of the territorial and functional structure of the region, the analysis of the demographic, socio-economic, natural-resource, scientific and technical and other potentials of the territory. At this stage, a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the natural and productive potential of the territory is conducted and the horizontal economic ties of the region, as well as the structural features of its economy, are examined.
4. Development of program options. The means of achieving the goals of each order in accordance with the material, technical, labor, natural resources are determined. Alternative versions of programs are made, which differ in terms of implementation, spending resources, intensity and production efficiency. For these purposes, most often applied methods of economic and mathematical modeling, based on the use of balance and structural models.
5. Evaluation and selection of a specific, optimal variant of social and economic development of the region. The choice of the most preferable variant of development of the region is carried out, proceeding from such criteria as the time of the program implementation, the reduction of the production cost, the increase in the profitability of production and the quality of products, the growth of labor productivity, etc.
6. Adjust the selected option. At this stage, the selected option matches the & quot; capacity & quot; internal and external markets, with the activities of market infrastructure. The stages, executors, specific terms of events, subprograms are specified, network implementation schedules are developed.
7. Registration of the target complex program of social and economic development of the region in the form of an integral document.
Structurally, regional development programs usually include the following sections:
• the regional nodal economic problem;
• program structure: target tree, resource tree, tools tree, bringing resources into operation;
• the initial level of social and economic development of the region;
• Analysis of alternatives: the selected base variant, alternatives;
• composition and structure of the options for the development of the region: technical and economic and market indicators of options, economic, social and environmental efficiency options, network schedules for the implementation of activities;
• implementation of the program.
Thus, economic-geographical forecasting is an important direction of social and economic geography. It has a great world-view, theoretical-methodological and practical significance, since it allows us to identify patterns and features of the development of the territorial organization of society and their constituent parts - territorial socio-economic systems.
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