Using analytical and advisory systems in the ISU
Types of advisory systems in the ISU. Economic Advisory Diagnostic Systems
The need for peer review, as well as the need for decision-making to improve management systems, has given rise to a certain scientific and practical direction, the main concern of which has been the dissemination and use of knowledge of specialists with the highest qualifications. The need for this kind of means has brought to life in the framework of artificial intelligence a variety of technologies designed to help in the management of society, trade, credit and financial spheres. The most popular names for these technologies are: decision support systems, expert, advisory, intelligent systems. A common feature of these technologies is that they all use the knowledge of an expert person in various forms. Having united them under the general name, it is possible to allocate those concerning economic sphere - economic advising systems (ESS). To these systems, there are three varieties that are most effectively used in ISU processes: diagnostic, calculated, estimated and expert systems of approximate reasoning.
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Economic advisory systems of a diagnostic nature belong to the most difficult class, as they are able to diagnose and prescribe a prescription for "disease." Such systems are created on the initiative of the company's management to control on-farm expenses and their accounting, diagnosing the financial condition of the enterprise and issuing recommendations for improving financial performance.
Businesses often use their own methods of assessing and analyzing the economic situation and well-established views on ways to find its improvement. Therefore it is rather difficult to develop a typical system of diagnosed character. For managers of different enterprises the most specific are:
• the main and subordinate goals that they pursue in the performance of their functions;
• the estimated indicators chosen by them to determine the true state of the enterprise;
• The usual rules for analyzing financial situations, as well as assessing their credibility;
• Procedures for creating ways out of the created situations and assessing the credibility of the received options for decision-making;
• methods for assessing the quality of the accounting system;
• The objectivity of evaluating their actions for the reporting period.
The above features define the blocks from which the ESS of a diagnostic character should consist:
1) diagnosis of the financial condition of the enterprise;
2) developing quantitative recommendations;
4) Database and rules bases;
5) input and adjustment.
The composition of the blocks of the analytical ESS used in the form of a diagnostic system is shown in Fig. 7.7.
Fig. 7.7. Structural-functional diagram of the diagnostic ESS
Database and rules database are organized separately, as they are created, adjusted and used by different principles and methods , with different frequency, and most importantly, are processed according to different schemes. If the rule base consists of a set of "If-then" constructs that allow you to establish a diagnosis, the database is the material for implementing these rules.
The diagnosis block contains procedures for manipulating the rules and database. These procedures are performed using the diagnosis generation tables, recommendations text, indicator tables, etc.
The Global Recommendations Generation Block operates on the basis of the diagnosis block information. Its purpose is to issue qualitative characteristics of the state of the enterprise and directions of the way out of the created situation.
The quantitative recommendations unit assumes a diagnosis with specific numerical values of the indicators that should be achieved in the subsequent period. To this end, you use the calculation block, in which the required formulas are stored. The volume of this block is significant, because to calculate one indicator that depends on one factor, one formula is necessary, two factors - four, three factors - eight formulas in the form of linear equations, etc. In addition, the interconnection of integrated (aggregated) indicators should be taken into account, which increases the total amount of calculations. Therefore, all formulas are concentrated in one block - the calculation unit.
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Blocks for adjusting rules, entering and adjusting data are standard. The principles and methods of their implementation are well known and typical.
It is possible to formulate two strategies on the basis of which diagnoses are made: local and complex diagnosis.
Local Diagnostics assumes localization and elimination of the causes and effects of certain factors that caused the deterioration of the economic situation of the enterprise. Attention is given only to them. The user is given pre-prepared standard recipes - recommendations (or pointers). Typical recipes are possible only in the simplest cases. Often, they provide calculated data that characterize specific processes or objects.
The advantage of this strategy is to reduce the total number of significant indicators and relationships; Focuses only on "narrow" places. Ensuring the brevity of information about the position of the enterprise and ways out of it, perhaps one of the most important criteria for choosing this strategy.
The search for factors that are responsible for the deterioration of the state of the enterprise, carried out by comparing the planned and actual values of indicators. Then, based on factor analysis, identify those indicators whose effect on the resultant indicators is significantly so that led to a deviation from the normative values coefficient of relative opportunities (ROV). To consider whether such deviation is dangerous or within the limits of the permissible, the expert decides.
If factors are discovered whose deviation exceeds the permissible norm, then such information serves as a signal for the development of appropriate recommendations to the decision-maker. Such comparisons are made in accordance with Form 7.1.
Quite often, information about exceeding the norms is used to recalculate new ROAs. The recalculation can be based on two methods.
Form 7.1. Comparative analysis of the ROE
The first method is the recalculation of the values of the indicators based on the factual REFs that have actually developed in the analyzed period (1st method) or with the help of standard values of the ROV (2- th way). The choice of the method of recalculation depends on the content of the indicator. Consider the use of the 1st method for an example.
Suppose, as a result of factor analysis of the solution & quot; P & quot; a situation was revealed, represented by the graphs of the object's states in terms of the indicators A, B, C, D, E in Fig. 7.8.
Fig. 7.8. State of economic object graphs depending on ratios of indicators:
and - the actual; b - normative; in - the new adjustment effect of C and D to A
Let the indicator A characterize the total volume of commodity output, which decreased, then, obviously, in order to improve the situation, it is necessary to determine the new values With and D such, one of which will toughen the other, deviating beyond the established boundaries. Therefore, the new values of ROV are temporary and exist only for the implementation of the decision taken for the nearest period.
The effectiveness of each of the structural divisions is reflected in the relevant economic indicator, so when choosing the method for allocating their assignments (see Figure 7.8, a ), , because any change in the ROV entails a change in the intensity of the activities of well-defined structural units. Whether this change is stimulating the work or, on the contrary, inhibitory, depends on the way of the recalculation of the indicators.
The second method does not provide for any changes in the ROV. Feasibility in it occurs when the tightening of indicators or, conversely, the easing for individual structural units at the moment is not necessary. In this case, the use of other levers of influence on them is expected.
The second method is softer, since it implies bringing the indicator to the required value at the expense of the average level of ROV. The calculation of the new value of the ROV can be performed using the formula
where - RMS normative; - ROV obtained as a result of factor analysis.
Then, based on the values of ROV, shown in Fig. 7.8, a, b, the new values will be
Other methods of recalculation of ROV are possible, with the help of which, in one way or another, influence the activity of the structural divisions of the enterprise (weighted average ROV, ROV, reduced with maximum values, average ROV, etc.). The choice of the method depends on the specifics of the activities of the structural unit (shop, warehouse, department) and the frequency (frequency) of deviation of its activities from the normative.
Revealed in this way, local causes of deterioration of the state of the enterprise can serve as a basis for establishing a local diagnosis and then issuing recommendations for their elimination. For example, the diagnosis can be as follows: a 7% decrease in profitability was due to a 12% decrease in profit and an increase in the cost of production by 21%; the cost of production increased due to an increase in the amount of work in progress in shop number 3 by 15%.
Recommendations (or instructions) according to the established diagnosis are determined based on the methods for allocating nodes in the "target-indicator" column.Complex diagnosis assumes a comprehensive logical analysis of the dynamics of indicators, the detection of deviations, the formation of a diagnosis and, finally, the issuance of a prescription, which outlines the list of necessary measures to exit from the current economic situation. The complexity of the analysis lies in the identification of those states that are not identified when autonomous examination of individual indicators, since the values of the latter can satisfy acceptable standards.
At the heart of the complex analysis are the rules "If something", allowing to establish the diagnosis of the system. For example, the indicator A decreased by 5%, And the indicator In increased by 10%, And the indicator was Reduced OR indicator L decreased by 5%, And the indicator In increased by 20%, And the indicator With is 20, OR exponent A decreased, In decreased And C increased 5%, THEN is diagnosed number 5.
A certain diagnosis is obtained from the tables drawn up on the basis of consultations with experts.
Formally, the number of diagnoses equals the number of all enterprise conditions. However, some of these states, grouped, fall into classes that indicate similar diagnoses.
Having established the diagnosis, it is necessary to proceed to the calculation and formulation of the prescription, in which specific measures should be provided. The recipe can be prepared in accordance with the chosen strategy for analyzing the economic situation in two ways: prefilling blocks that are issued unchanged as the corresponding diagnosis is confirmed; compilation of recipes depending on the results of analysis and calculations.
The first option is possible when identifying simple diagnoses, recipes for which are well-known and typical. A more flexible second option, which allows you to dynamically compose a recipe using the & quot; If-That & quot; rule. and taking into account additional, qualitative and quantitative changes that have occurred at the enterprise.
An example of issuing a prescription based on the first option for the indicated diagnosis can be the following rule: & quot; prescription number 5 can be applied if the diagnosis is No. 5 & quot;.
Recipe number 5 can contain the following information:
In order to stabilize the financial situation and improve the profitability of the enterprise, it is necessary: to stabilize the profit from the sale of commodity output by: a) increasing the output of the second type; b) reduction of overhead variable costs; reduce the cost of fixed production assets by leasing a portion of fixed assets.
Making a recipe based on the application of the first option is not always effective. It is useful for the decision-maker to know not only the general recommendations, but also the quantitative parameters of managed business operations, so the second option is based on calculations.
Let's say that diagnosis No. 5 was installed, as a result of which a profitability loss of 7% was revealed due to a 4% drop in the profit from leased equipment; increase in losses due to falling stock prices by 3%; increase in work in progress by 12%.
In order to bring the enterprise to the planned trajectory, it is necessary to recount all the factors on which the profitability depends, up to the terminal (resource) vertices of the graph "target-indicator". As a result, a recipe will be issued, which can contain the following information.
To enter a control object on a planned trajectory, i.e. increase in profitability by 7%, it is necessary:
1) to increase the output of goods of the 1st type by 15%;
2) reduce the area leased by 72%;
3) to realize shares in the amount of 30%;
4) to reduce production reserves by 20%, including technological reserves by 60%;
5) the volume of finished products in warehouses will decrease by 19%.
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