Intermediate stage "Defining source data, collecting and analyzing it"
After completing the initial stage (planning and strategy of the project development), go to the intermediate stage, which includes: determining the sources of the source data and collecting them,
definition of analysis methods, analysis and verification of results, analysis of alternatives.
A well-known American logistics specialist, D. D. Bowersox, suggests using the initial data of three prerequisites : economic, managerial and analytical. These prerequisites serve to determine the key characteristics of the activity, the main variables and economic parameters of the existing logistics system and alternative options for its development.
Economic backgrounds reflect the characteristics of the business environment in general, including market conditions, the actions of competitors, trends in changes in consumer preferences and composition of products. In other words, they define the environment in which the logical system will have to work [1, p. 477].
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Management prerequisites reflect the material and economic characteristics of the current or future logistic situation, and the enterprise, as a rule, is in a position to somehow influence these characteristics. Typically, the management assumptions include data on the possible number of distribution capacities, modes of transport, logistics processes, constant and variable logistics costs.
Analytical prerequisites establish the limitations caused by the features of the chosen analysis technique. Typically, such prerequisites include the scale of problems, the degree of detail in the analysis, and the methodology for solving problems.
In Fig. 3.19 describes these three categories of assumptions. [1, p. 478].
Data collection: Once you have identified the sources, you can start collecting certain data.
Defining analysis methods. The main methods are analytical, economic, economic-mathematical, simulation, etc.
Analyzing and verifying the results. For effective design, it is necessary to compare the obtained results with the control data to check the correspondence between the actual indicators for a certain period and the results of analytical calculations.
Analyzing alternatives. Once you have defined project alternatives using calculations and a computer, you can define performance indicators for each option and choose an effective option.
Fig. 3.19. Categories of prerequisites
Final stage "Economic evaluation of the project and its implementation"
At the final stage of the design work should be completed with the development of recommendations for implementation and project implementation plans.
Evaluation of costs and benefits. As a result of the analysis of the logistics system, there are developments, proposals and options for implementation. These developments should improve the efficient operation of the logistics system. And if there are several? In this case, it is necessary to compare them using the performance indicators (profit, costs) for each option. On the performance indicators, select several options. More details of the evaluation of benefits and costs will be set out when considering specific functional areas of logistics (warehousing, transportation, etc.).
By offering options and recommendations in the project, we also evaluate the emerging risks . They consist in calculating the probability that the new situation will correspond to the initial assumptions and will not affect the financial consequences.
The final stage of the final stage is drawing up an implementation plan and a project implementation schedule. At this stage, it is necessary to determine the procedure for implementing the implemented measures, and also to draw up an implementation plan and those responsible for its implementation. Clear and effective in this case can be a network schedule, through which will monitor the implementation and evaluation of the actual results of the projected logistics system.
In conclusion, we note that we have considered the general methodology of the process of designing a logistics system. However, for more in-depth analysis and making optimal decisions, analytical, simulation and optimization methods are used.
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Analytical methods are used to evaluate logistic alternatives using standard calculation methods (for example, based on tables).
Simulation methods - is a collection of models that simulate the phenomenon being studied and encoded in a computer.
Optimization methods are linear programming methods that evaluate the proposed alternatives and make the choice more efficient.
In logistics, three kinds of mathematical models are used. Their classification is shown in Fig. 3.20.
Fig. 3.20. Classification of mathematical models
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