Hidden Traps In Decision Making

Q1. Referring to the hidden traps in decision making, briefly identify one decision you (or someone you understand) made that might have been influenced adversely by one of the traps (please stipulate which bias you are referring to). [>60 words]Approximately five years ago, my mom fell prey to the status-quo capture. She made a decision not to pursue other investment opportunities for her 403B funds after her job flipped the responsibility of controlling these funds over to the employees. With limited investment knowledge, my mother used this as a convenient reason to do little or nothing thus, leaving her 403B money invested the same way her employer acquired always done. This is a big mistake because the business had her whole funds committed to stocks and throughout that time the stock market proceeded to go belly up therefore do her investment. It was a terrible decision for my mother because she did not force herself to develop some investment skills. She required what she thought was a simple and safe option by going with the status-quo or simply going with the flow because it was comfortable and she thought less dangerous than carrying it out herself. My mom's way of thinking was typical for patients of the status-quo capture. Q2. Many decision producers fall in to the trap of seeking confirmatory information. Exactly what does this statement indicate, and what other types of information should professionals also consider to avoid this bias? [>60 words]Decision makers fall into the trap of seeking confirmatory facts when they tackle decision making with a sealed mind by intentionally disregarding information that does not confirm their perceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information holds true. These decision creators have a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one probability, their way or idea, thus overlooking alternatives. They have a tendency to seek information to confirm rather than challenge or falsify their hypothesis, thus dropping prey to selective assortment of evidence. To avoid the confirmatory data trap, decision designers should seek advice from others whose viewpoints they respect so that as stated in the article, "The Invisible Traps in Decision Making, " avoid adjoining themselves with "yes-men. " Professionals can also prevent the confirmatory trap by building counterarguments against their own decisions by selecting and standing possibly several alternatives in the order of most powerful to least strong reason to take action else. People tend to gather and remember information from memory space and interpret it in a bias way. For example, if a administrator has an worker in his section that is called a troublemaker, the manager will take notice of any negative actions surrounding the staff, with less attention to other employees committing the same negative infractions. A tendency to get this done as time passes unjustifiably strengthens the manager's belief that the worker is a troublemaker, which is also suggests that people are bias towards confirming their existing beliefs. Q3. Exactly what is a prescriptive style of decision making? How exactly does this distinction with a descriptive model (empirical accounts) of decision making? Name and briefly clarify a prescriptive decision making model you have learned from another school in your level studies. [>50 words] [See lecture notes and do some internet sleuthing (cite any recommendations. PS. Wikipedia comes with an inappropriate defn. so leave it together)]A prescriptive style of decision making is an analytical approach to decision making following a recognized standard model that produces a correct solution based on the correct data input. Essentially, it implies what folks should and can do predicated on a solution produced from a normative decision making theory that produces an perfect output. Just like the phrase prescription in a medical sense, the prescriptive model is a good recommended stop for the condition based on extensive research. Descriptive models, unlike prescriptive models, are ideas of preference related to the mental state of your choice maker affected by myths, biases and other methods of your brain. Therefore, the descriptive model is more prone than the prescriptive model to being afflicted by the invisible decision making traps described in this article. One current decision making model that we am presently learning how to do in my own quantitative analysis category is linear encoding which consist of determining a way to achieve the best final result ranging from maximum to lowest earnings for confirmed outcome. In order to do this I Input my prices and constraints into a pre done excel formula spreadsheet and it computes the best possible end result by using an excel computer known as solver. Q4. What's meant by the term 'bounded rationality'? [>40 words] [See lecture notes and do some internet sleuthing]I see bounded rationality as the best reasonable rational choice made by a decision manufacturer predicated on his potential and also influenced by his time and learning resource constraints. However, your choice maker appreciates that his decision may well not be the optimum solution but it is good enough at that point with time for his situation. For instance: when taking a test, I, your choice maker, choose and jot down what I understand as the right answers to the test questions accumulated from the available resources I had developed on hand to use in finding your way through the test within an allotted timeframe.

Q5. Provide examples of three organized decisions and three unstructured decisions that you, as a person, experienced to make. Quickly describe why each example is organised/unstructured. [>75 words] [See lecture records and do some internet sleuthing (cite any personal references)]

Structured decisions, as mentioned in your choice Support Encyclopedia online, are decisions where all three decision components (the info, process, and evaluation) are decided since these type decisions are created on a regular basis in business surroundings. These organised decision support systems may use a checklist or form to ensure that necessary data are collected and this the decision making process is not skewed by the absence of data. Unlike organized decision, unstructured decision designers do not follow a organized routine to reach at a remedy; they use their know-how or experience to reach a conclusion. Listed below are examples of organized decision making because standard formulas were in place for analyzing collected data to attain a precise outcome:(1) The ROI (profits on return) of a piece of equipment in a manufacturing plant. I was designated to a task force during one of my summertime jobs to help accumulate recorded revenue output generated from the utilization of a bit of equipment in development and input the info into a spreadsheet that used a standard accepted formula to determine the revenue accumulated over a specific period to ascertain if the gear productivity was justifying its cost. That is an example of a set up decision that is manufactured on a regular basis running a business surroundings to justify equipment costs. (2) Throughout a summer work in a creation facility I got responsible for tests production samples on a routine basis in a quality control testing lab with the responsibility of notifying the creation director if his production crew was generating a quality product. This is a set up decision because the production samples were regularly taken and examined in a laboratory with standard test strategies and the results were in comparison to a standard set of product specifications to determine if an excellent product has been produced. (3) In my family business my responsibility for producing employees pay assessments is done using organised decisions because I take advantage of standard accounting software that uses registered hours and establish staff pay scales to generate pay checks. The following are examples of unstructured decisions because I did not follow a set routine to perform the desired final results. I had to use my ability and available resources to set up an idea for accomplishing the desired outcome:(1) Designated research paper. Previous semester I put to do a research paper on an assigned topic pursuing no given step-by-step instructions for how to research and format the newspaper. I had to use my knowledge compiled through my academic career to create the research newspaper. (2) High school science fair task. Using my technology expertise and knowledge I designed experiments necessary for evaluating a hypothesis and showing the results. (3) Rating the most details in a video game against my roommate. This was completed using unstructured decision making because I had to count on my gaming playing experience and experience to score details in the overall game.

Q6 Just click here to display a set of HBR articles related to management decision making. Choose any two of the articles and write an article summary of each. Just click here for rules for writing article summaries. [about 200-250 words for each and every summary]

The Judgment DeficitByChristopher Simmons The article "The Common sense Deficit" by Amar Bhide made an appearance in the Sept 2010 problem of Harvard Business Review. In this article, Bihide insists that the substitution of human view with computer models was instrumental in the recent near-collapse of the global current economic climate. He further insists that the human being judgment model is no better than the computer model if it's permitted to escalate out of control with no forms of control stops like the right mixture of centralized and decentralized control buttons. Behide uses financial samples including the recent housing crisis and technology samples comprising the sophisticated programming of IBM's Deep Blue computer to Microsoft's Home windows technology and their affects on the current economic climate to show the professionals and cons of every model in both a centralized and a decentralized setting up. The final results in these cases show the importance of balancing power and autonomy in decision making. Matching to Bhide, problems started to appear in the market with the transformation from the old designed way (e book keeping, accurate committees, and autocrats) to the new fashion way of using statistical models and algorithms in decision making. Using this method, some of the human being filtering processes found in the human common sense model were omitted thus making it somewhat easy to make bad decisions. This kind of bad decision making extended to spiral uncontrollable within the last weeks creating our present day financial crisis. This article will not say that use of statistical models and algorithms are the sole reason behind the financial meltdown and really should not be used, instead it expresses that people must learn to harness and control these models and not rely solely with them. In this article "The Wisdom Deficit" Bhide clarifies that the right blend of the computer models and the human authority models are necessary to keep our market in balance. MAKE SMARTER DecisionsByChristopher Simmons The article "MAKE SMARTER Decisions" by Thomas H. Davenport appeared in the November 2010 issue of Harvard Business Review. In this article, Davenport insists that recent large number of well publicized poor decisions made in both the open public and private industries have resulted because of the lack of concentrate on increasing decision making techniques. He asserts that there are just as much opportunities to boost decision making as there are to improve another process. He seems to condone the need for additional businesses to incorporate organized decision making techniques. Davenport states that a amount of useful insights for enhancing the decision making process have been with us for years but have remained undetected by many organizations. Recently, few businesses have actually paid attention to recent popular business books that are handling a large variety of decision making alternatives and also have actually adopted some of these alternatives with good results. However, the necessity is increasing to identify and incorporate the recently publicized decision making techniques into business functions. Davenport shows that the framework for bettering decisions can give attention to evaluating the accessible components of decision making such as which decisions have to be made, what information comes, and the key roles along the way rather than concentrating on the supervisor. He states that smart organizations that incorporate a framework for increasing decisions can make this happen in four steps comprising identification of the key decisions that want immediate attention, recognition of the main element factors that go into each important decision, design the steps to include your choice making process, and finally, enlist experts to work with company executives in improving the procedure. Davenport identifies two organizations which may have successfully included decision making techniques and the outcomes of their success. He says that analytics and decision automation are being among the most powerful tools for enhancing decision making however he warns managers not to incorporate analytical models into their operation that they do not understand. He also suggests that it is important to keep an eye on and screen the models to determine if they are working and will have a human back-up in place in the event a model malfunctions. In the article "MAKE SMARTER Decisions" Davenport stress that organizations' encouragement for his or her manager to hire better decision making techniques will not guarantee that they will make better decisions but it can result in the chance that they will probably. (No accessories)

Comments:

Mon Aug 30 11:05:26 EDT 2010 Section Trainer Adrian Gardiner

Chris Excellent work. Exceeds goals Strategy to use. . . . woo woo

Sun Aug 29 23:35:55 EDT 2010 Learner Christopher Simmons

The HTML video u referred us to method didn't work for me while i clicked allow HTML it could not i want to paste anything in the box. Also on q 6 it will not indent the lines when obviously did it while i typed it up for the synopsis

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