Information models of innovation management - System theory and system analysis

Innovation Management Information Models

Initially, the method of organizing complex examinations based on the use of information assessments was proposed and implemented during the experiment on the development and implementation of innovations in the management system of research activities in higher education [22, 23].

In the course of the experiment, the task was set to study the feasibility and usefulness of introducing research management in higher education into practice as forms that had already been used in industry (for example, order-orders, integrated programs, economic incentive funds, etc.) , and fundamentally new forms, specific only for the higher school (territorial interuniversity service centers on the basis of inter-university cooperation and specialization, territorial centers based on cooperation between the universities call and industrial enterprises, etc.). These new forms of management of scientific research in higher education were aimed at the introduction of program and objective principles in planning and management, improving the use of results of scientific research in industry conducted in higher education, strengthening the impact of these results on improving the quality of training specialists, integrating higher education, science and production. As the experiment developed, it was necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the organizational forms of control being tested and to develop recommendations on the advisability of extending them to other universities that did not participate in the experiment. In accordance with this, the task was set to develop a methodology for the comparative evaluation of the impact of individual HBV (mainly organizational type) and their complexes on the implementation of the goals set for the experiment.

Then this method was used to assess the impact of innovations of various types (in technology, technology) on the implementation of the objectives of existing industrial enterprises and associations; the influence of organizational and technical measures on the technical re-equipment of production, improvement of the management system and other measures on the self-financing income of the enterprise, and the methodology developed on its basis and the automated procedure for its implementation were included in the methodology and software of the future enterprise's activities when developing its project.

In the following a number of models for project management of complex technical complexes were developed, helping to make decisions about the expediency of continuing their implementation, development, further investment, for analyzing market situations, etc.

For an explanation of the methods, we give examples.

The activities of a developing enterprise (organization) are associated with continuous updating of existing equipment, technological processes, materials used, improvement of the organization of labor and enterprise management. This continuous improvement of the means, objects and process of labor activity is achieved through the development and implementation of innovations in various fields of activity (renewal of products, technology, technology, management methods), which, as a rule, are developed and implemented not in turn but simultaneously. >

When implementing HBV, the task arises of prioritizing, prioritizing their implementation. When solving a problem, it is necessary to take into account the features of HBV and the conditions for their implementation.

When assessing the effectiveness of HBV, it is necessary to take into account the heterogeneous external and own factors, in the conditions of which a particular production functions and develops. It is obvious that the social and even economic effect can not always be expressed in monetary terms. The indirect indicators used here are tried to be reduced to a generalizing indicator, using the value units as a universal measure. But such a substitution of direct indicators (indirect cost) is not always possible, especially in non-industrial systems.

Difficulties in assessing the effectiveness of organizational HBVs (especially in the non-industrial sphere) are also related to the fact that most of them have no analogs and development background, and therefore they are characterized by the lack of statistical data necessary for carrying out traditional calculations of economic efficiency. In addition, the introduction of innovations, as a rule, comes into conflict with the desire to get as much revenue as possible in a short time. In these conditions, special attention should be paid to justifying the influence of HBV on the implementation of the company's long-term objectives, and comparing the impact on the objectives of different HBVs.

And, finally, it should be borne in mind that often innovations, especially organizational type, are not one-off events, but are of a long-term nature, and several HBVs can be introduced simultaneously. In this regard, there is a need to manage the implementation of HBV, which is associated with their interim assessment and development on this basis of recommendations on whether to continue or stop their experimental implementation, redistribution of financial resources allocated for their implementation. This requires not only comparing different estimates with each other, but also evaluating the same HBV at different stages of its development, and, in turn, with similar estimates of other HBVs being implemented simultaneously.

In some situations, you can apply indirect quantitative estimates, the method of solving matrices. However, these methods do not always allow the development of HBV estimation models that adequately reflect real situations.

The considered features of HBV and the difficulties of evaluating their effectiveness have initiated the development of new methods for organizing complex examinations, based on an information approach.

Application of information models of the 1st kind. Application of information models of the 1st type is based on an assessment of the degree of influence of HBV on the implementation of the objectives of the enterprise (organization) in the analyzed period of development. In accordance with the information approach (see Table 3.1 in Chapter 3), estimates of degree of goal-response (i.e., probability of achieving the goal) are introduced to estimate each HBV (Figure 6.9) and probabilities of using and the potential is calculated new features:

(6.5)

Fig. 6.9

where - the probability of achieving the goal when using the innovation; - the probability of using a particular HBV in the implementation, achievement of the corresponding sub-goal.

Here, the usual Shannon probability of unreaching the target (entropy) is replaced by the conjugate

The cumulative impact of innovations of a certain group (for example, combined with a common sub-goal):

(6.6)

Using the characteristics , it is possible to obtain comparative estimates of the influence of HBV and their complexes on the achievement of subgoals, these subgoals - to achieve subgoals of a higher level, etc. up to the global goal, and similarly to the method of solving matrices, to replace the difficult estimation of the influence of HBV on the final (global) goal by a step-by-step estimate of the more "small" uncertainties.

Calculation based on the estimates and provides the proposed approach with some advantages in comparison with the method of solving matrices and estimations of the PATTERN technique. These advantages are as follows: it is easy to obtain generalized estimates of the effect of HBV or sub-objective complexes, since the measured in bits can be simply summed up, and when processing probabilistic estimates, it is necessary to apply more complex procedures; it becomes possible to evaluate not only the degree (probability) of the influence of the i-th HBV on the realization of goals, but also the possibility to take into account the probability the use of this HBV under specific conditions in the current period (which in a number of situations can be estimated on the basis of statistical studies).

At the same time, the considered way of using information estimates does not solve all the problems of comparative evaluation of HBV in the process of their implementation, and, in addition, it remains necessary to obtain expert estimates p (for the moment, that always causes difficulties for experts, it is easier for them to make predictive estimates of the degree of influence of HBV on a certain perspective.Therefore, in a number of situations it is advisable to supplement the considered method of estimation with the information model of the second kind.

Use of information models of the 2nd kind. The use of information models of the second kind is based on a comparative analysis of complex systems during a certain initial period of their design (implementation, development) by comparing the changes in information assessments in time. You can use two methods of measuring :

1) through the probability (6.5);

2) through the deterministic characteristics of perceived information:

■ in static at some point in the introduction of HBV (taking the mean arithmetic mean, ie ):

(6.7)

■ taking into account the process of introducing HBV and its dynamics

(6.7a)

where in the calculation can be interpreted as the number of products or the volume of products of a new type; number of units implementing new technology, technology; number of units of new equipment being introduced; number of units implementing new planning forms, etc. characterizes with what degree of accuracy it is necessary to take into account in specific conditions (for example, to the accuracy of units, tens or hundreds of new products, to thousands or hundreds of thousands of rubles in assessing the volume of products sold, to units or dozens of units implementing HBV, etc.), i.e. with the help of the units of measurement are set, which can be different; - the volume of the notion of HBV needed to get the potential can be interpreted, for example, as the coverage of the given HBV of the corresponding sub-goal); - rate of introduction of HBV (ie, the amount of HBV of a given type that is injected per unit of time); - the minimum time of introduction of HBV (taking into account the chosen ); - acceleration, i.e. increment of the rate of introduction of HBV per unit of time; - a characteristic of the rigidity of the system, the resistance to the introduction of HBV ( can be calculated as a quantity that is inverse to the ratio of the difference in the rates of intrusion of the HBV to the time interval between them, that is, it is of interest in the case of mass introduction of HBV.)

Using two methods of determining allows, with the known (calculated through ) and measured compute

(6.8)

Then, estimating the predicted at the end of the implementation phase of the HBV, which is easier for a specialist to do than give estimates at the current moment when monitoring the progress of the introduction of HBV, you can calculate and , (direct or indirect characteristics of the state of the introduction of HBV), determine at different times (initial, current) and calculate the values ​​

(6.9)

for these moments of time for all the compared HBV, which can then be summarized, to obtain generalized estimates of HBW complexes, to calculate the relative significance of individual HBVs of these complexes, i.e. Operate H, expressed in universal relative units or bits, as valuation estimates.

At the same time, if it is possible to roughly estimate the expected efficiency from the introduction of HBV in value units (which is inevitably done when allocating funds for their experimental implementation), then estimates help to distribute funds for individual HBOs, make decisions about the redistribution of funds in the implementation process, taking into account its progress.

An enlarged algorithm for implementing the method of organizing a complex examination (without taking into account the dynamics of the formation of HBV) is shown in Fig. 6.10.

Several HBV criteria can be used for each of them. In this case, the estimate , obtained using the forecast estimate , is divided between these criteria in proportion to , which in this case can characterize the degree of influence of the corresponding criterion (indicator) by means of which the implementation of the HBV is evaluated, and then for each of the criteria ..., as illustrated in Fig. 6.11, which gives an example of the evaluation of two organizational and technical measures from the plan of scientific and technological progress.

One is used to evaluate the second one, and two criteria are used to estimate the first one, as the weighting coefficients of which the parameter is used; that is,

It follows from the example that when changing the parameters J during the introduction of the HBV, their preferences may change: initially the relative importance of the first HBV was higher, and after a period it became lower than the second.

Thus, when applying the information approach, it is possible to provide the opportunity to control the course of the implementation of HBV.

As an innovation, you can also consider the product as a new type of product produced by the enterprise. Especially if the products are complex technical products (including computer equipment) or software packages. In this case, the task can be set as a marketing task that helps the customer together with the developer to choose the desired configuration of a technical product or software package.

Fig. 6.10

Fig. 6.11

thematic pictures

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