METHODS OF MARKETING INFORMATION ANALYSIS
As a result of studying this chapter, the student must:
• types of marketing information distribution series;
• methods for processing expert data;
• the content of the basic concepts of statistics in marketing research;
• parameters that allow you to evaluate market factors;
be able to
• to systematize statistical information on marketing research;
• use the statistics settings;
• carry out numerical analysis and assessment of the main market factors;
• Practical skills of using the basic analytical methods of marketing research;
• Methods for analyzing marketing information in a Microsoft Excel environment.
Basic methods of market analysis
The main results of market research are the forecasts of one hundred development, evaluation of market trends, identification of key success factors. The system of methods for studying the market includes: analysis of demand; analysis of the proposal; analysis of consumption requirements, market development prospects; evaluation of competitors' activities, study of firms-buyers, commercial and trade-political practices, own activity and competitiveness of the firm.
System collection, processing and analysis of market information is one of the main requirements for market research. The main sources of information on the market include: state statistics; industry accounting and statistics; information coming from wholesale and retail trade; data from special surveys.
Market research is carried out in two sections: the evaluation of certain market parameters for a given time; obtaining forecast values.
First of all, the situation in the market (situation situation) is evaluated, then the size of market capacity is determined and its segmentation is carried out.
The main indicator of the market forecast is the amount of demand. The sequence of demand forecasting includes a number of stages:
• the identification of general economic, demographic, socio-psychological and other factors ( x 1, x 2, ..., x n ), affecting the change in demand (C);
• study their impact on the amount of demand;
• determination of trends in the development of both the factors themselves and the demand that depends on them:
The task is reduced to determining the set of factors and the nature of the relationship between them and the magnitude of the demand for the goods. To do this, use the following methods:
• Surveys (population, experts, resellers)
• Statistical analysis of time series sales and extrapolation of identified trends (it should be noted that in modern conditions, a dynamically developing market and an increase in the number of uncertainties sharply reduces the effectiveness of this method);
• Analytical modeling, i.e. construction and study of the model of the process, reflecting its structure, external and internal interrelations. This method is used when the information about the past is minimal, but there are some practical ideas about the market that allow to develop a model and to reproduce alternative variants of its development;
• The experiment, i.e. trial realization of the goods.
Methods for measuring demand
The peculiarity of demand measurement is the fact that it can be done indirectly through the indicators of the sale of goods or expenditures of the population on the acquisition of certain commodities.
1. Methods for measuring potential demand. Potential demand is the maximum possible amount of demand that potential consumers of a product can produce. The measurement values are:
• the number of potential customers, the potential sales volume in physical units;
• the amount of potential sales in value terms. Potential demand is calculated theoretically -
poked value, which is defined in two approaches to measuring potential demand: the search method is the intermediate estimates of the calculation of end-users based on the total number of people; the method of construction consists in the determination of all possible groups of potential consumers and their subsequent summation.
2. Methods of measuring real demand. Real demand is the amount of actual sales of goods for a certain period, expressed in natural or value terms. Since the magnitude of sales does not fully correspond to the magnitude of demand, but serves only as an indirect measure of it, different methods of estimates are used:
• Calculation based on the volume of production, exports, imports and inventories;
• measurements on a sample of stores (Nielsen index);
• Estimates of consumer spending on budget statistics.
3. Demand forecasting methods. Demand forecasting is carried out using various methods. In practice, as a rule, an integrated approach is implemented that takes into account the strengths and weaknesses of the methods used. There are methods for forecasting general and special-purpose demand.
4. General methods of forecasting demand. They are based on extrapolation, expert assessments, norms and economic-mathematical modeling.
Methods of economic and mathematical modeling
These are the most complex methods that require special training. They are based on taking into account the correlation of demand and the factors that determine its development.
Special forecasting methods. Take into account the features of demand for various products. They proceed from separate forecasting of the main components of demand with their subsequent summation.
Methods for forecasting demand for durable goods. The initial demand is determined by testing the market to determine purchases for the initial accumulation of the park (security) with a durable object. For calculations, a logistic function is used that has a saturation limit, according to the actual sale of goods for a certain period.
Demand for replacement. It is forecasted based on the depreciation coefficients of the accumulated fleet, calculated taking into account the life of objects, as well as their moral aging.
Additional demand. Predicted based on market testing data.
Market forecasting of demand can also be estimated with the help of non-quantitative methods. They are based on expert assessments of top managers, opinions of sales agents and buyers. The forecast based on the opinions of the leaders is relatively inexpensive and quick. The advantage of forecasting from the views of trade agents is that such a forecast can be differentiated in terms of goods, territories and buyers. The buyer's forecast is purely subjective.
Among the non-quantitative methods for determining demand, the method of expert assessments of Delphi takes a special place. This method consists in collecting expert opinions on the possible sales volumes of goods through a written questionnaire in several rounds. Each expert after the statistical processing gives a demand forecast independently of the others. Any forecasts are only working hypotheses about some or other development indicators in the future, therefore their reliability is completely dependent on the information on which they are based.
Let's consider an example of the method of selecting an expert group. Based on the analysis of the literature on the forecasted problem, any specialist with several publications in the field is selected. He is asked to name the 10 most competent, in his opinion, specialists on this issue. Then they apply simultaneously to each of the 10 named specialists with a request to indicate the 10 largest of their fellow scientists. 10 of the initial list of specialists are deleted, and letters containing the above request are sent to the rest. This procedure is repeated until one of the newly named specialists adds new names to the list of experts, i.e. until the network of experts is stabilized. The obtained network of experts can be considered as the general set of specialists competent in the field of the forecasted problem. However, due to a number of practical limitations, it turns out to be inappropriate to involve all experts in the examination. Therefore, it is necessary to form a representative sample of the general population of experts.
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