The basics of the forecasting process
Forming the perspectives of interaction in the system "nature - society"; is carried out on the basis of specially developed forecasts.
Forecasts, as a rule, are of a probabilistic nature, they are characterized by a multivariate description of the future development of the object, related to the dependence on the influence of external conditions (active background).
The plan is a reflection of the feasibility study that was adopted for the implementation, specifying the specific terms of implementation, scope of work and financing.
A scientifically based forecast allows us to ensure the progressiveness of planned decisions, take into account the cyclical nature of technological development and economic fluctuations (downturns and upsides) and carry out targeted development of the organizational and technical potential of the enterprise, taking into account the possibilities of the natural environment.
The variety of problems arising in the provision of vital activity of the enterprise and being the subject of forecasting leads to the emergence of a large number of multidirectional forecasts that require a certain ordering.
As classification features in the grouping of forecasts, the assignment, scale and forecast period are used.
For purpose forecasts can be divided into scientific and technical (development of research and development, inventions, technology, new materials, products), environmental (state of the environment), technical and economic (development and location of enterprises , organizational and economic indicators of production, etc.), socio-economic (demography, labor, welfare, demand, etc.).
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According to the scale of action , international, national, intersectoral, branch, association, enterprise, intra-plant forecasts differ.
For the forecasting period - operational (with the time of anticipations for scientific and technical and economic objects up to 6 months), short-term (1-2 years), medium-term (2-5 years), long-term 5 to 15 years).
The logical sequence of developing the forecast involves the following stages:
1. Predictive orientation based on system-structural analysis. Statement of the problem for the development of the forecast. Clarification of the characteristics of the object, the scale of the output or market, the establishment of prediction periods, as well as the conditions, constraints and the expected hypothetical result.
2. Analysis and establishment of active factors of the forecast background.
3. Formation of information base on the forecast object and the forecast background (patents, scientific and technical, economic, environmental information, etc.).
4. Development of the forecast model and choice of prediction methods.
5. Development of the forecast of the development of the object and evaluation of its reliability, taking into account the effect of the factors of the forecast background.
6. Develop recommendations for making planned decisions based on the forecast.
When developing a forecast assignment, a preliminary analysis of the object is carried out in order to identify the parameters most fully characterizing the efficiency of the operation. For example, for purification systems for neutralizing emissions, such parameters include cleaning efficiency, service life, and the like. Forecasting is subject to the selected indicators, not the system.
When forming the forecast, the limit values of the parameters of ecological and economic systems, determined by the limiting possibilities of the manufacturing technology or by the state of the natural environment, for example the limiting value of industrial emissions, limited by the state of the natural environment in a particular territory, are taken into account.
In the process of describing the forecast object, its structure is specified through aggregation, i.e. Combining particular (detailed) characteristics in more generalized (objective method) or with the help of disaggregation, i.e. sequential deepening of decomposition or detailed structure (functional method).
To increase the reliability of forecasting, it is necessary to take into account the active forecast background - the set of conditions that are external to the object, essential for solving the forecast problem. Features of the background forecast are taken into account at several stages of the forecast development:
- in the analysis of external natural factors actively interacting with the prediction object (or affecting it);
- when predicting the development of an active background;
- when adjusting the prediction of the object taking into account the evolution of the active background.
Thus, in the process of forecasting, a forecast is developed not only for the development of the object, but also for changes in the development of the active background (or external environment).
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Based on the refined structure, the composition of the characteristics of the prediction object and the active background, the sources of information needed for forecasting purposes are determined.
Based on the information processing results, the prediction model is constructed, which reflects the most significant characteristics and relationships of the object with the external environment. When building a model, it is necessary to take into account the forecasting period - the time interval on which retrospection is based, as well as the prediction forecast period - the time interval for which the forecast is being developed.
The forecast is a model of a prediction object, the study of which allows you to obtain information about possible states of an object in the future and (or) ways to achieve these states, taking into account certain conditions and constraints.
According to their diversity, the forecast models cover the whole range of modern types of models - from formal mathematical to simulation, expert, situational, human-machine models, based on the use of the creative abilities of a person.
In the forecasting process, two approaches are used: inductive and deductive.
The method of induction is constructed on the consideration of problems from the particular to the general, i.e. on the basis of actual or recorded data (experiment or development) about the object, a tendency (or regularity) of the overall development of the object is established, which is used to substantiate the forecast.
With deductive method, ie. approach from the general to the particular, first determine the general trends or patterns of development of the analyzed field of technology, and then, based on the identified general perspective, determine the levels and paths of development of individual directions, as well as specific technical characteristics of the forecasting objects of interest in this case.
The inductive approach is best suited to the methods of search forecasting, and the deductive method - to the normative forecasting.
In search prediction, the state of the object in the future is determined by the regularities revealed by the particular results of the experiment (experiment), its behavior in the past and the present. In this case, the forecasting is carried out from the existing level of knowledge (but in the course of time), and the final results of the development of the object constitute the content of the forecast.
In turn, normative forecasting is focused on the fact that the ultimate goal (or regularity) of the development (behavior) of the object in the future is set, and the content of the forecast is the definition of private ways, means and deadlines for achieving the goal. Forecasting in this case is carried out from the given children, i.e. towards the course of time.
The effectiveness of the forecasting process and the quality of the forecasts received are determined by the degree of compliance with the basic principles:
- system (interconnection and coordination of forecasts of the forecasting object and the forecast background);
- consistency (predictions of normative and search, different lead times and the nature of objects);
- verification (determination of reliability and validity);
- continuity (adjustments as new information about the object arrives).
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