INDUSTRY AND REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS...

INDUSTRY AND REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS

Foreign trade statistics

Foreign trade statistics are conditionally divided into customs statistics of foreign trade in goods and services. Customs statistics foreign trade in goods (Table 4.1) takes into account those goods that increase the country's material resources as a result of their importation into the economic territory or reduce these stocks as a result of their export. The economic territory of a state is a geographic territory under government control, within which goods, capital and labor freely circulate. The statistical territory of the country is a part of the territory of the country for which statistics are collected.

Table 4.1

Customs statistics of foreign trade in goods

Counts

Does not count

Non-monetary gold.

Monetary gold.

Securities, banknotes, coins that are not in circulation.

Securities, banknotes and coins in circulation.

Goods in barter trade.

Temporarily exported or imported goods.

Humanitarian aid.

Goods imported by all categories of visitors.

Goods in transit.

Goods crossing the state border in accordance with the consignment agreement.

Goods sent to territorial enclaves (embassies, consulates).

Goods, storage media and software. Goods for processing.

Goods accounted for in trade in services

Goods moved within TNCs.

Electricity, gas, water.

Goods in financial leasing.

Fish catch, minerals from the seabed, scraps loaded from foreign vessels in national ports

Compiled by: Rudneva, A. O. International trade and world commodity markets: analytic. allowance. M .: East-West, 2009.

To date, most countries in the world use the Harmonized System for the Description and Codification of Goods (HS) developed by the World Customs Organization and implemented since 1988. The HS is a multipurpose commodity nomenclature that meets the needs of customs authorities and statistical services. The basis is the origin, the type of material from which the product is made, the purpose of the product, its chemical composition. However, the data of this system is not sufficient for the purposes of customs statistics.

If the economic and statistical territories coincide, then a common accounting system is used (the UN prefers it), if the statistical territory covers only part of the economic territory, then a special accounting system is applied. Accounting for goods is made when they cross the border of the economic territory of the country.

The main problem of the statistics of foreign trade in goods is the comparability of national statistics, which is expressed in the following:

• Definition of the list of goods to be included;

• The statistical value of the same goods (differences in the methodology for determining the customs value);

• privacy;

• the varying degree of importance of individual product groups for implementing trade and fiscal policies;

• including data on one transaction at different time periods;

• use of various trade classifications;

• Insecurity and underdevelopment of customs and statistical services;

• Inauthenticity of declaring goods for the purpose of evading payment of customs payments.

Major trends and features of international trade in goods. Geographical structure of international trade in goods. The largest exporters and importers

World trade is a traditional, historically the first and the main form of international economic relations. International trade realizes 1/3 of world GDP and 80% of all international economic relations. It serves as a quantitative expression of the international division of labor, the advantages of which are associated with increasing production efficiency, reducing production costs and seeking the best satisfaction of economic interests. When exporting, the country gains, measured by the difference between a higher world price and a lower domestic price. When importing, domestic costs are saved by rejecting the national production of a particular type of product, as the prices of goods imported from abroad are lower compared to the costs of their production within the country.

To assess the dynamics of world trade in goods, the export and import figures of individual countries in comparable prices are calculated, which are then summed up, which allows us to judge the volume of world trade in the year under review.

For the years 1950-2012. the value of world exports increased from 61.8 billion dollars to 18.2 trillion dollars, and the volume of world imports - from 64.1 billion dollars to 18.3 trillion dollars. Thus, the international trade turnover in 2012 exceeded the similar one the indicator of 1950 is more than 203 times (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2

The world volume of exports and imports of goods, 1950-2012, bln. dollars

Metric

Year

1950

1975

2000

2006

2009

2012

World Export

61.8

887.5

6444.1

11982.9

12419.1

18211.3

Worldwide imports

64.1

909.1

6642.1

12203.3

12509.4

18379.2

Compiled according to UNCTAD, 2012.

It should be noted that the volume of world exports should be equal to the volume of world imports, as the same goods circulate in circulation, which were exported by some countries and imported by others. However, in fact, world import is always more expensive than world exports. The fact is that export prices are calculated in prices FOB ( Free on Boat), and imports in prices GIF ( Cost, Insurance , Freight ), which include not only the cost of goods, but also the cost of transportation and insurance of goods.

The growth rate of global trade in goods declined in 2011 to 5.5% after growth in 2010, when the growth in the physical volume of trade was registered by 14% (Table 4.3). In addition, judging from UNCTAD's available data for 2011, it is possible to assume a further slowdown in annual growth to 3.2%. This indicator is much lower than the pre-crisis level, when the average growth rate of trade was about 8%.

Table 4.3

The physical volume of commodity exports and imports in selected regions and countries, 2008-2011. (change in% to the previous year)

Region/Country

Year

2008

2009

2010

2011

2008

2009

2010

2011

Export

Import

All countries of the world

2.4

-13.1

13.9

5.9

2.5

-13.4

14.1

5

Developed countries

2.5

-15.2

13.2

5,1

-0.2

-14.5

11

3.5

Including Japan

2.3

-24.9

27.5

-0.4

-0.6

-12.4

10.1

1.9

European Union

2.4

-14.3

12

6

0.8

-14.2

10

3.2

Countries in Transition

-0.2

-14.4

11.5

6

15.5

-28.6

15.5

17

Including the CIS

-2.6

-11.4

13.3

2.3

22

-32.5

18.2

19.1

Developing countries

3.2

-9.7

15.4

7

6.6

-9.9

19.2

6.2

Africa

-3.1

-9.7

8.7

-5.1

10.6

-3.9

7.1

3.9

Sub-Saharan Africa

-4.1

-8

10.2

2.9

3.2

-4.4

8.8

7

Latin America and the Caribbean

-0.3

-11

10.3

3.4

8.5

-17.9

23.3

7.1

East Asia

7.3

-10.6

23.8

9.9

0.4

-5.3

25

7.5

Including China

10.6

-13.9

29

12.8

2.3

-1.8

30.8

10.6

South Asia

6.8

-6

6

9.1

20.9

-5.6

13.9

4.1

Including India

16.8

-6.6

5.9

13.7

29.7

-0.8

13.8

5.3

Southeast Asia

1.6

-10.9

18.8

4.5

8

-16.3

21.9

6.1

Western Asia

4.4

-1.1

2.6

12.7

12.5

-11.5

5.4

3.8

Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations based on the UNCTAD statistical database, 2012.

The slowdown in growth is due to the weak dynamics of developed countries, which are still major players in world trade, even though their combined share in world trade declined from 69% in 1995 to 52% in 2011. Except for Moreover, the recovery in trade volumes after the sharp decline in 2009 ceased by the middle of 2010, and in the subsequent period the physical volume of imports remained at the same level. The dynamics of exports was quite high, and as a result of an increase, albeit slowed, demand from developing countries and countries with economies in transition, growth in 2011 was 5.1%.

Simultaneously with the growth of the scale of international trade, its geographical (the ratio between countries and groups of countries) and commodity structure (the ratio between individual categories of goods) is changing.

Table 4.4

Geographical structure of exports and imports of international trade, 2012

Countries

PRS

PC

SPEs

World Export

7,032 trillion dollars

4.6 trillion dollars

$ 406.5 billion

Worldwide imports

$ 7.5 trillion

4.9 trillion dollars

$ 478.6 billion

Note: PRS - industrialized countries, PC - developing countries, EIT - countries in transition.

Compiled by the author according to UNCTAD data.

Changes in the geographical structure of international trade in goods are due to the uneven economic development of individual countries. Industrialized countries (PRS) retain a leading position in international trade in goods. In 2012, both exports and imports of developed countries amounted to more than $ 7 trillion (Table 4.4).

On the mutual trade of industrialized countries (PRS) account for the main commodity flows with a tendency to deepen the diversification of the geographical structure of foreign trade. From 1990 to 2012 the share of developing countries (PC) in world trade increased from 23 to 39% (Table 4.5) and amounted to 9.5 trillion dollars. First of all, this became possible due to high rates of economic growth of new industrial countries (NIS) and increase in their share in trade from 10 to 13% in the period under review. The situation of transition economies in the international trade remains insignificant, and the share of small countries is about 3% in world exports and imports.

Table 4.5

Specific weight of individual groups of countries in world exports and imports

Group

countries

Year

1990

2000

2004

2006

2009

2012

World exports,%

PRS

72.3

65.7

63.1

58.8

56.6

56.2

PC

24.2

31.8

33.8

39

39.5

40

NIS

10.2

14.4

13.3

13.2

13.05

13.6

SPEs

3.4

2.3

3.07

4.5

3.8

3.3

World imports,%

PRS

73.7

69.6

67.1

64.8

60

59.4

PC

22.4

28.5

30.5

32.3

36.7

37.1

NIS

10.2

12.9

12

12.1

11.8

12.2

SPEs

3.8

2.4

2.3

2.08

3.2

3.6

Note: PRS - industrialized countries, PC - developing countries, EIT - countries in transition, NIS - new industrialized countries.

Compiled by UNCTAD, 2012 submitted.

Table 4.6

Largest Exporters and Importers of Goods, 2012

Country

Volume, trillion dollars

%

Goods Exporters

China

1.9

9.6

Germany

1.48

8.9

US

1.47

8.5

Japan

0.822

4.6

Netherlands

0.666

3.9

France

0.595

3.8

South Korea

0.566

3.2

Goods importers

US

2.2

12.7

China

1.7

7.9

Germany

1.2

7.3

Japan

0.854

4.4

France

0.712

4.3

United Kingdom

0.673

3.8

Netherlands

0.598

3.5

Compiled by the author according to UNCTAD, 2012.

According to UNCTAD, China ranked first in terms of exports (9.6% of world exports, 1.9 trillion dollars). However, the industrialized countries of the world, such as the USA, Germany, Japan and the Netherlands, also hold the leading positions (Table 4.6).

Interregional commodity trade in 2011 showed significant growth. For the fourth time in five years, the growth rates of interregional trade have exceeded the indicators of commodity trade in general. This shows the growing division of labor at the macro-regional level. The falling demand from traditional buyers forced exporters to more actively develop new sales markets, as a rule, in other regions. The most striking example is Canada, which in 2007-2009. due to a sharp decline in demand in the US significantly increased the supply of its products to East Asia and Europe.

The dynamics of individual inter-regional cargo flows was not the same. Of the 25 largest cargo flows in 2011, 18 showed an increase (including 12 - large and very large), 3 remained at the level of the previous year, 4 decreased (including 3 - strongly and very much).

In 2010, the increase was noted in 17 freight flows (including 13 - large and very large), stability - 4, decrease - 4.

Almost all freight flows, oriented to East Asia (6 out of 7) and the EU (6 out of 7), while cargo flows to North America (5) showed very different dynamics.

In absolute terms the following cargo flows showed the most significant growth:

• Southeast Asia - East Asia;

• Australia - East Asia;

• Persian Gulf - East Asia;

• North America - East Asia;

• CIS - East Asia;

• The Persian Gulf - the EU;

• South-East Asia - South Asia.

The greatest reduction has been in the flow of goods:

• Mediterranean - EU;

• South Asia - East Asia;

• The Gulf of Guinea - North America.

In relative terms, the most dynamic cargo flows were:

• The Gulf of Guinea - the EU;

• South-East Asia - South Asia,

• Southeast Asia - East Asia;

• The Persian Gulf - the EU;

• CIS - East Asia;

• The Persian Gulf - North America.

The worst dynamics showed freight flows:

• Mediterranean - EU;

• South Asia - East Asia;

• The Gulf of Guinea - North America.

In the mutual trade of developed countries, exports from the United States have traditionally grown faster than exports from Japan, since in the latter case factors contributed to the disorganization of supplies due to natural disasters. In the EU, the dynamics of intraregional trade, which accounts for a significant proportion of member countries, was affected by the recession. The physical volume of trade of this group of countries remained practically unchanged, in 2011 EU exports grew by only 8%, while imports remained approximately at the same level.

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