Forecasting risks and losses from their occurrence - Enterprise planning

5.2. Forecasting risks and losses from their occurrence

The description of risks should be accompanied by predictive calculations of the probability of their occurrence and possible losses for the enterprise. This is a rather complex analytical and forecasting process that uses mathematical statistics methods (distribution curves, normal distribution, standard deviations, etc.), econometrics (quantitative relationships between the factor and the result described by the mathematical model, etc.).

When assessing and forecasting risks for enterprises, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of the economic processes of these enterprises, as well as the high level of dependence of performance results on external conditions and threats, the work of the personnel of the enterprise, its professionalism and ability, which indicates that there are significant internal subjective factors in achieving planned results. Therefore, the assessment of risks and consequences of decisions taken in these enterprises attached great importance. Given that it is the service sector enterprises that make up a large share of small and medium-sized businesses, additional difficulties and threats arise related to limited financial resources for maneuvering and covering costs, both for detailed elaboration and assessment of risks, and for recovering losses from their occurrence. Therefore, the textbook provides a simplified methodology for forecasting and assessing risks for these enterprises.

When forecasting risks and possible losses from their occurrence, it is advisable to break them into groups taking into account the possibility and conditions for their accounting in planned calculations:

Group 1 - simple risks that directly affect the results of economic and financial activities of enterprises and are considered to be priorities in the formation of conditions and reserves for their reduction or prevention (commercial, internal potential risks);

Group 2 - risks of instability of the external environment (political, economic, etc.), indirectly affect the results of economic and financial activities of enterprises;

The third group - innovative risks, are associated with venture (risk) entrepreneurship, have a high probability of occurrence (up to 50%) and high level of losses from their occurrence (up to 100%), which implies isolation of these risks into a separate unit with appropriate support and activities to insure these risks.

In the planning calculations of enterprises for the current and medium-term planning mainly simple risks (1st group) are taken into account by types of risks and losses. The risks of Group 2 are projected in general as a possible decline in performance. Particular attention should be paid to the risks of financial and economic instability on a national and international scale. These risks of solvency and liquidity, which directly affect the reliability and sustainability of national enterprises. Evaluation of the impact of these risks is associated with the analysis and planning of financial indicators and the conditions for their provision. Therefore, in the financial planning of the enterprise's activities, special attention is paid to this aspect, and revenues are generated that ensure the criterial values ​​of indicators of solvency, liquidity and others taking into account unfavorable situations arising from the financial and economic crisis.

Innovative risks (group 3) of the application of new technologies, production of new goods and services should be evaluated, forecasted and accompanied separately, taking into account the high degree of uncertainty of the results and possible losses. These risks are usually taken into account in the business plans of innovative projects, where they are described, the possibility of their occurrence is determined, and measures are taken to prevent them. Investment resources for these projects are formed taking into account insurance and prevention of these risks (venture funds).

For planning the current activity of enterprises, simple risks are predicted that directly affect certain performance indicators of these enterprises.

Each simple risk in terms of probability of its occurrence and impact on the results of financial and economic activities is assigned a weighting factor (K in ), which is equal to

the probability of occurrence of an event (risk) - K p multiplied by the level of change in the results of economic and financial activity ( with ):

This coefficient should be used to adjust the plan and determine the sustainability of the enterprise for occurrence of risk situations.

The forecast of possible losses from the onset of a risky event can be calculated as follows on the example of a hotel (Table 5).

Table 5

Calculation of the weighting coefficients of financial and economic losses from the onset of risks in 2011 (by the example of the hotel)



Risk Probability,%





Possible revenue loss,%

Weight reduction ratio

Income reduction weight ratio

1. The tour operator may not fulfill its obligation to load the hotel




2. At the initiative of competitors, there may be a decline in prices for services, etc.




Total for two factors



In the future, when planning, it is advisable:

- calculate the possible losses from the occurrence of risks;

- provide for measures to reduce losses from occurrence of risk situations;

- compare losses from the onset of risks to the costs of their prevention;

- carry out insurance of risk events (the amount of insurance payments must be linked to possible losses).

For example, the plan for gross income of the hotel for the next year is calculated in the amount of 100 million rubles. The weighted risk ratio (according to our example) is two factors, 0.035. Thus, the possible losses of gross income will amount to 100 x 0.035 = 3.5 million rubles. Taking into account the reduction in gross revenues in the event of a risk, the plan will amount to 96.5 million rubles. This indicator of gross revenues is compared with the threshold of profitability, and the stock of financial strength is determined, that is, it determines how stable the enterprise is to the losses from the onset of risks. Then, measures are being developed to increase profitability not lower than the planned level even when a risk event occurs. At the same time, the risks associated with innovations, as it was said earlier, should be allocated separately and provide their support, including in the implementation of measures to reduce losses from the onset of risks.

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