Theories of the cyclical development of the economy
Cyclicity is a property of processes that are widespread in nature and society, which are caused by the recurrence of phenomena at certain intervals of time. Depending on the time and duration, several types of cyclic oscillations are distinguished:
• Over-long-term (L. Gumilev notes 1200-year cycles of the life of ethnic groups as bearers of the civilizational principle, E. Toffler - 1000-2000-year-olds, O. Spengler - 1000-year cycles of development of civilizations);
• centuries-old (for F. Braudel from 150 to 300 years, J. Forrester - 150-250, S. Myagkov - 300 years, O. Spengler - 300 years in political, spiritual and artistic rhythms)>
• long-term (long waves II D. Kondratieva, cycles of the generation change, managerial cycles, etc.);
• medium-term (eleven-year solar-terrestrial cycles of A. Chizhevsky);
• short-term (two-year cycles of fluctuations in grain yields in the temperate zone);
• seasonal (migration of labor resources by season, seasonality of economic and demographic processes).
For economic and geographical studies, it is very important to consider economic cycles - one of the key concepts of macroeconomics. Cyclicality is inherent in all countries and characterizes the process of fluctuating movement of production, investment, employment and income, as a result of which there is a significant expansion or contraction of business activity in most sectors of the economy. The cyclical nature of economic development - is the continuous fluctuations of the market economy, when production growth is replaced by a recession, and business activity is increased by lowering. Periods of increasing economic activity are characterized mainly by extensive development, and periods of decline - the beginning of a predominantly intensive development.
The problem of cyclical economy has deep historical lines and is interdisciplinary. The first systematic presentation of periodic economic crises, as opposed to the existing theory of economic equilibrium, was put forward by Jean Charles Leonard de Sismondi. Until then, the classical economy denied the existence of business cycles. The development of the theory of periodic crises of J. Sismondi was continued in the theory of the cycles of Charles Dunoyer and Johann Carl Rodbertus.
Currently, all the basic theories in this area can be reduced to the following seven.
K. Marx first scientifically substantiated the general methodological principle, according to which crises in the economy are regarded as a deviation from equilibrium. Their main reason is the aggravation of the contradiction between the social nature of production and the private appropriation of its results. This contradiction manifests itself in the contradictions between labor and capital, production and consumption, between the organization of production in a separate enterprise and in society as a whole. These views were developed in the works of J. Hicks, K. Arrow.
This theory was developed by the Austrian economist J. Schumpeter, who was one of the first to adopt and apply the idea of Kondratiev cycles. Economic dynamics, in his opinion, is based on the spread of various innovations that are initiated by existing economic agents (entrepreneurs). J. Schumpeter defined long-wave oscillations as one of the forms of manifestation of economic dynamics generated by the innovation process. In his opinion, the motive for finding and introducing new combinations is profit, which becomes a reward for innovation. The theory of J. Schumpeter developed in the works of S. Kuznets, G. Mensch, A. Klineknekht, D. Van Dain, S. Glazyev, and others.
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