9. Risk management of an innovative enterprise
Content and tasks of managing the risks of innovation in the enterprise. Types of risks and their features. Methods for reducing the risks of innovation.
Risk management in innovation is understood as a set of practical measures that reduce the uncertainty of innovation results, increase the utility of implementing innovation, reduce the price of achieving an innovative goal.
Among the main objectives of risk management in innovation are:
- forecasting the manifestation of negative factors affecting the dynamics of the innovation process;
- an assessment of the impact of negative factors on innovation and the results of innovation;
- development of methods to reduce the risks of innovative projects;
- the creation of a risk management system in innovation.
The implementation of risk management objectives and tasks is entrusted to managers of innovative projects.
Reducing the uncertainty of innovation results is achieved by creating a database on innovative projects and accumulating information on the degree and quality of their implementation. However, an excess of information about innovation does not reduce uncertainty. To manage risks in innovation, it is necessary to ensure the relevance (sufficiency) of information for decision-making.
If the company management decided to enter a new market segment for its organization, then no perfect information base on the state of the initial segment will reduce the uncertainty of activity in the new sector, all the accumulated information will turn out to be irrelevant and unsuitable for risk management.
The growth of the utility of innovation is directly related to the variation of innovation. The development of options for the implementation of innovative projects is the main objective of the theory of innovation management. And since the number of options for implementing innovation is limited to a finite set, deterministic methods for selecting alternatives provide quite satisfactory results. On this basis, in particular, the method of competitive selection of projects.
The price of achieving an innovative goal is determined by economic indicators, for which an investor or innovator has taken a risk.
Depending on the factors that cause them, the risks are classified as follows.
The adoption of managerial decisions is always influenced by a number of factors that can not be changed or limited. Such factors include tax legislation, natural and geographical conditions, social morality, social principles, etc. These factors give rise to pure risks. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the same risks can be classified as pure or not included in this group. For example, when illustrating the nature of manifestation of net risks, it is most often suggested to consider natural and geographical risks. However, if it is an innovation activity, this example is not always fair: the innovator can really influence this risk factor, taking a decision on the location of the new organization, the choice of a climatic zone for the implementation of the innovation, etc.
Political risks are associated with the political situation in the country and the activities of the state. They arise when the conditions of the production and trading process are violated for reasons not directly dependent on the business entity.
Natural and natural risks are risks associated with manifestations of natural forces of nature: earthquake, flood, storm, fire, epidemic, etc.
Speculative risks are fully determined by the management decision. Often, speculative risks are of an indeterminate nature, their analytical estimates change over time.
Credit risk is the risk that the borrower will not pay the principal and interest due to the creditor. Credit risk is also the risk of such an event, in which the issuer that issued debt securities will not be able to pay interest on them or the principal amount of debt.
Such uncertainty increases not only the risk, but also, as a rule, a beneficial effect. The most vividly speculative risks are manifested in such areas of activity that depend on market conditions. Therefore, often speculative risks are called dynamic risks.
Commercial risk is associated with production, business or financial activities, the main purpose of which is to make a profit. Commercial risk is the result of the combined effect of all factors that determine the different types of risks: foreign exchange, political, entrepreneurial, financial, etc. The assessment of commercial risk is carried out based on the principles of risk absorption and addition: if the risks do not depend on each other, pessimistic assessments, if the risks give rise to other risks, then their estimates are formed according to the laws of probability theory and mathematical statistics. Unlike innovative, commercial risks are associated with a stable process of production, economic or financial activity.
Currency risk is considered as a danger of currency losses associated with a change in the exchange rate of a foreign currency in relation to the national currency in the conduct of foreign trade, credit, foreign exchange operations, operations in stock or currency exchanges. Occurs when there is an open currency position. For exporters and importers of innovations, currency risk arises in cases when the price of innovation is expressed in foreign currency. The exporter incurs losses in relation to his national currency in the period between the conclusion of the contract and the payment on it. For the importer losses occur when the course is reversed.
Portfolio risks are associated with the portfolio of investments.
The strategic allocation of assets determines how the portfolio should be placed with long-term forecasts based on such indicators as profitability, variance, covariance. Tactical location of assets is determined on the basis of the data of short-term forecasts, how funds should be allocated at any particular moment.
If the investor is interested in increasing the profit from his financial investments and strives to increase the price of borrowed capital to implement the innovation, the innovator, on the contrary, tries to reduce the price of attracting investments and thereby increase his own profit. Therefore, the risk of one is the chance of another.
Business risk (risk of entrepreneurial activity) arises in entrepreneurial activities and is associated with the probability of reducing revenue to a level that does not cover business costs. The risk appears as a result of unfavorable changes in the market situation (market risks) or erroneous market policies (marketing risks), which is associated with the need to reduce prices under the influence of competition or with the inability to sell goods (products, services) in the planned volume.
The inevitable condition of management is uncertainty. Innovative activity is more risky than other areas of entrepreneurship. In the conditions of instability of the economic situation, the problem of the risk of losses when the company invests in innovation becomes especially urgent. The evaluation of innovation risk is carried out according to rules similar to the assessment of commercial risks. Unlike commercial, innovative risks are associated with the commercialization of new types of goods and services.
There are several types of innovative risks that are most typical for modern conditions:
Risks of mistaken choice of innovative projects.
The reasons for this type of risk may be insufficiently justified choice of priorities for the company's economic and market strategy. This is possible, for example, in the case of the predominance of short-term interests in making decisions over long-term ones (the desire to distribute profit more quickly between owners makes it less likely to increase the share of the enterprise's products in the market in a few years). The prospects of the company's position on the market can be mistakenly estimated, its financial stability (the desire to increase profits by increasing the sales volume of an advantageous product can lead to additional expenses for the development of resource-saving technologies if the financial situation deteriorates sharply and the market situation changes). In addition, often the author of an innovative project overestimates its significance for the consumer - in this case, the reason for the risk is the erroneous assessment of the consumption market.
The risk of failure to ensure an innovative project with a sufficient level of funding.
Includes the risk of shortage of funds for the development of the project (the firm could not attract investors because of an incorrectly drawn up business plan for the project) and the risk of incorrect choice of funding sources (inability to implement the project from own funds, lack of available sources of borrowed funds and so on .).
Risk of non-fulfillment of business contracts.
This is the risk of the partner refusal to conclude the contract after the negotiations (in case of a drastic change in the economic conjuncture), the risk of contracting on not very favorable terms (under the dictates of the supplier or in the absence of sufficient experience with the firm), the risk of concluding contracts with incompetent (insolvent ) partners, the risk of non-fulfillment of contractual obligations by partners on time (mainly depends on sharp fluctuations in the economic conjuncture).
Marketing risks of current supply and sales.
This group is quite extensive. In most cases, it is determined by the insufficient level of professionalism of the marketing services of the enterprise or in general the absence thereof.
The risk associated with the enforcement of intellectual property rights. The problem of occurrence of this kind of risk is especially actual for the enterprises making innovative production. The main reason for its occurrence in United States enterprises is the imperfection of patent legislation (obtaining a patent (license) with a delay, a short patent term, etc.).
The effectiveness of innovation activity directly depends on how accurately the assessment and examination of risk has been made, and also on how adequately the methods of managing it are determined.
The methods of risk management in innovation activities are usually classified according to the nature of the risks.
If the risk parameters do not depend on the actions of the project management team (net risks), risk management is focused on mitigating the consequences of occurrence of risk situations.
In other cases, the management of the risks of innovation is aimed at completely eliminating or reducing the possibility of occurrence of risk situations (risk prevention, training, the formation of a risk management system, etc.).
Monitoring of the innovation process and decision-making on risk reduction are necessary to adjust innovation activities and achieve the organization's goals in an environmentally unstable environment.
The main methods of risk management include: risk distribution, diversification, limitation, insurance, hedging, avoiding risks, etc.
The distribution of risks is usually carried out between project participants to make the risk managers as possible each participant who, under these conditions, will have to calculate and control the risks, and take the necessary measures to overcome the consequences of the risks.
Diversification allows to reduce risks through multidirectional activities, sales and supplies, accounts payable, etc.
The simplest example of multidirectional investments is a portfolio formed of two or more securities. As a result, the decrease in the exchange value of some securities is almost completely compensated by the growth of others, i.e. regardless of the situation on the market, the value of the portfolio remains stable, and investment is subject only to systematic risk.
The portfolio thus formed has a generally lower risk than each of its financial assets.
Limitation (restriction) of risks is ensured by the establishment of limit amounts of expenses, sales, credit. This method is used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans to business entities, when selling goods on credit, lending, determining the amount of investment of capital, etc.
Insurance as a system of economic relations includes the formation of a special fund of funds (insurance fund) and its use (distribution and redistribution) by paying insurance compensation of various kinds of losses, damages caused by adverse events (insured events).
Depending on the system of insurance relations, different types of insurance are allocated: coinsurance, double insurance, reinsurance, self-insurance.
In co-insurance, two insurers and more participate in certain insurance interests of the same risk, issuing a joint or separate contracts each for an insured amount in its share.
Double insurance implies the presence of several insurers of the same interest from the same hazards, when the total insured amount exceeds the insured amount for each insurance contract.
In case of reinsurance, the risk of payment of the insurance compensation or the insured amount accepted by the insurer under the insurance contract may be insured, or in whole or in part, from another insurer (insurers). In the event of an insured event, an insurance organization - reinsurer is liable in the amount of assumed reinsurance obligations.
Self-insurance - the creation of cash and in-kind insurance funds directly in business entities. The main task of self-insurance is to promptly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities.
Hedging is an effective way to reduce the risk of adverse changes in the price environment by concluding fixed-term contracts (futures and options). The method allows you to fix the purchase or sale price at a certain level and thus compensate for losses in the spot market (cash market) by profit in the futures market. Buying and selling fixed-term contracts, an entrepreneur protects himself from price fluctuations in the market and thereby increases the certainty of the results of his production and economic activities.
In the practice of management, sometimes there are cases when it is necessary to withdraw from risky innovation projects or to stop joint activities with partners. For this, there are methods of avoiding risks:
- rejection of unreliable partners;
- the rejection of risky projects;
- search for guarantors, etc.
Thus, innovation activity is characterized by a high level of uncertainty in the dynamics of the main factors on which its results depend. Innovation, unlike stable processes, can end in complete failure. Nevertheless, an increasing number of entrepreneurs, embarking on the implementation of innovations, prefer to calculate their risks and chances, provide bottlenecks and try to reduce possible negative deviations. These tasks are solved when creating a risk management system.
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