Inductive reasoning, Introduction, The essence of induction - Logic for managers

Inductive reasoning


How much rubbish is talked about induction and deduction! Some declare themselves adherents of induction, others - deductions, whereas the true vocation of the researcher ... is to connect them.

J. Tyndall

In the practice of reasoning, it is relatively rare to fully justify a thought. Often we are not able to achieve a reliable result of reasoning. When investigating repetitive phenomena, we can not always give them a scientific explanation, bringing these phenomena under the appropriate law of nature, society or thinking. It is necessary to build assumptions and act on their basis, not having full confidence in the truth of these assumptions. An increase in the probability of conclusions in the discussion of the individual and the particular to the general is a matter of inductive logic.

In the activity of a manager, manager, inductive logic is a great help: on its basis, assumptions are made about the causes of socio-economic phenomena, hypotheses are put forward, and forecasts are made. Using the methods of induction, the qualified manager foresees, organizes, directs, coordinates and controls.

The essence of induction

Cognition in any field of science and practice begins with an empirical study of objects and their signs. Not only empiricists, but even philosophers, for the most part, admire facts or experiences. "But there were also such - far from the last," LI Shestov wrote, "who clearly saw that the facts at best are only raw materials that are subject to processing or even processing, and in itself do not give either knowledge, or truth. " There is no pure empiricism even among the most hardened empiricists, for no scientist will study facts for the sake of facts. He studies them for generalizations. A speculative philosopher and even more ... Plato, belonging to their number, distinguished knowledge ("episteme"), which is always knowledge of the general, from the opinion ("dox") - information about the private. But, as Aristotle showed, the general does not exist independently, before and outside the individual, and the individual does not exist without a common one. The general exists in a separate, through a separate, ie. manifested in specific subjects. Therefore, knowledge of the general, essential, natural is achieved through the study of the individual. At the same time, in the process of observing the same type of natural and social phenomena, attention is drawn to the repeatability of certain features in them. Steady repeatability suggests that each of these characteristics is not individual, but common. The phenomena of a particular class that are inherent in all. The logical transition from knowledge of individual phenomena to knowledge of the general takes place in this case in the form of inductive reasoning, or induction (from Latin - guidance).

The logical nature of induction - generalization (lat generalis - general, main) - generalization, transition from particular to the general, the subordination of particular phenomena to the general principle.

The term generalization means also the method of cognition, which allows one to study the arrays (systems) of these elements on the basis of the selection of a set of elements having the same characteristic (the general population) and the choice of the unit of analysis. At the same time, the attributes and properties that impart uniqueness and exclusivity to the element of the aggregate are eliminated (taken as brackets for parentheses). This ensures the formalization of the set, which allows us to distinguish the typical in different. This procedure is widely used in the methods of scientific induction (see more in paragraph 9.3).

In inductive reasoning between the premises and the conclusion, there is a relation of ambiguous following (confirmation): the truth of the premises provides only some probability of the truth of the conclusion (its likelihood).

F follows inductively from the set of propositions (or a separate utterance) of D; when inductive following, the set of sentences O confirms P.

In inductive reasoning, the connection of premises and conclusions is not based on the law of logic, but on some actual or psychological grounds. The information contained in the conclusion exceeds the aggregate information of the parcels; the increment of knowledge takes place. But this is achieved by reducing the logical reliability of reasoning: the conclusion is of a probabilistic nature. In other words, it is not always possible to obtain a reliable conclusion from true premises even if the rules of inference are observed. Parcels only lead us to some assumption, suggest.

Inductive reasoning - reasoning in which the transition from knowledge about individual objects of the class to knowledge of all objects of the class is carried out.

For example: evasion from conflict, confrontation, adaptation, compromise, cooperation - interpersonal methods of conflict resolution. Probably, all conflicts can and should be resolved at the interpersonal level.

Inductively generalising, we draw conclusions from the cases that we have seen and examined, to the cases which we have not seen and have not explored, from the known to the unknown.

If the number of objects of the studied set is finite and foreseeable, then it is possible to establish the properties and relations of each of them. But if the set of objects is finite, but immense? And if it is infinite? How is it possible in these cases to move from the private to the general? We answer this question in different ways, depending on which kind of inductive reasoning belongs to.

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