Types of planning in supply chains, Long-term planning...

Planning Types in Supply Chains

The integrated supply chain planning system includes two levels of planning: strategic and tactical.

Strategic planning, is usually oriented to a long-term perspective and determines the main directions of the supply chain development.

In the course of strategic planning, strategic goals, logistics strategy, configuration and ways of supply chain development, information technology, a system of indicators for assessing the fulfillment of strategic tasks and monitoring of the logistics plan are determined.

The result of strategic planning is the development of a strategic plan with the definition of aggregated performance criteria for both the supply chain and each participant in the logistics activity.

It should be noted that decisions at the strategic level (for example, distribution network planning) are closely related to tactical level decisions (for example, supply planning).

Tactical planning covers the short and medium term. In the course of tactical planning, the questions are solved: where, how much to produce, store, transport in relation to the main type of products, and develop generalized plans and basic schedules.

In the generalized plans:

1) an analysis is made by activity, for each participant in the supply chain, as a rule, for each month, while the details of the planning work do not apply;

2) Optimization and balancing of plans is carried out by the optimization criterion;

3) resources are allocated for the medium term, taking into account the constraints imposed by available capacities, logistics, production and supply requirements, and the like.

After the compilation of generalized plans, basic schedules are developed that divide the generalized plan into components and show activities, usually for each week. This allows not only to balance the expected demand and production opportunities, but also to distribute the demand among the sources of its satisfaction.

In addition to the planning levels, the planning system should be decomposed according to the degree of coverage of the planned decisions, by the functional areas of the object, by the planning horizon, by the degree of frequency (periodicity).

The type of planning in the supply chain is determined by the nature of the tasks that the participants of the logistics activity set themselves, and the possible terms for their solution. Accordingly, planning is divided into a long-term (five years or more), a medium-term (two to five years), a short-term (one to two years) (Figure 2.6).

Types of planning in the supply chain

Fig. 2.6. Types of planning in the supply chain

Long-term planning

Such planning allows you to see the patterns in the processes occurring within the supply chain, and to form the most effective ways of its development. The long-term planning process includes the following stages: economic forecasting, strategic planning and long-term plan development.

Economic forecasting. The economic forecast is a multivariate hypothesis about the possible directions and results of supply chain activities in the future, as well as the resources and organizational measures required to achieve them. The main functions of economic forecasting are:

• Analysis of economic, social, environmental and scientific and technical trends;

• assessment of current situations and identification of key problems of economic development;

• Analysis of directions of change in relevant areas, evaluation of their future actions and anticipation of new economic problems;

• identification of possible development alternatives in the future;

• The accumulation of sufficient information to fully substantiate the adoption of optimal planning decisions.

The peculiarity of long-term forecasting is its variance. Forecasts may vary depending on the degree of provision of certain types of resources, the full or partial satisfaction of the demand for certain goods, etc. In the process of economic forecasting, a comparative analysis of supply chain capabilities is carried out with the achievements of competitors, the state of the market, the features of the industry within which this chain operates, are studied.

Strategic planning. Such planning involves developing primarily global goals for the development of the supply chain in the long term, taking into account uncontrolled factors of the external environment: political events, inflation, unemployment, balance sheet, changes in lending rates, etc. At this stage, the main objectives and the most important results of the supply chain are established, provided that the current policy is maintained. Then these results are compared with the results that should be obtained when the level of established development goals is reached, and reserves are identified. As a result of strategic planning, strategic decisions are developed to realize the identified reserves, taking into account the means and ways to achieve the goals and ensure the necessary resources. At the same time, new opportunities are being developed and taken into account, for example, expansion of production capacities through the construction of new productions or the formation of new sales markets through the expansion of the distribution network, etc. Development of the long-term plan. At this stage, the general principles of the supply chain orientation for the future (the concept of development), determine the main direction and development programs, content and sequence of the major activities , ensuring achievement of the set goals.

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