Computational and analytical planning methodThe calculation and analytical method of planning is that based on the analysis of the achieved value of the indicator taken for the base and the indexes one hundred changes in the planned period, the planned value of this indicator is calculated.
This method of planning is widely used in cases where there are no technical and economic standards, and the relationship between indicators can be established indirectly, based on an analysis of their dynamics and relationships. Most often, this method is based on expert judgment or a method of factor analysis.
The calculation-analytical method is implemented according to the algorithm presented in Fig. 2.1.
Fig. 2.1. Algorithm for implementing the calculation and analytical method
This method is widely used in planning the amount of profit and income, the need for basic and working capital, cost, prices, etc.
Example . It is necessary to plan the firm's need for working capital in the planning period, if the basic balance of working capital was 1550 thousand rubles. In the coming period, it is planned to increase production volumes by 10% and accelerate turnover from 5 to 6 times a year.
Obviously, in connection with the growth of production in the planned period, the working capital should increase in proportion to the volume index, but the acceleration of turnover affects the need for working capital inversely proportional. This can be represented in the form of a factor model:
where ObKpl, ObKbaz - working capital, respectively, planned and basic; I Q - the index of the volume of production (in this case, 1.1); I о - index of turnover, which is defined as the ratio of planned turnover to the base (in times) or basic turnover to the planned (in days). In this case, it is 6/5.
So, for the coming period the planned value of current assets will be:
Economic and Mathematical Modeling in Planning
Economic and mathematical modeling in planning - the definition of the relationship in quantitative terms between the planned indicators and the factors that determine them. It is an exact mathematical description of the economic process, i.e. a description of the factors characterizing the structure and patterns of changes in this economic phenomenon through mathematical symbols and techniques (equations, inequalities, tables, graphs, etc.).
The model can be constructed by functional or correlation relationship. The functional relationship is represented by the equation:
Y = F (x),
where Y is the metric; x are factors.
Development of the planned indicator in the case of using economic-mathematical modeling is carried out according to the algorithm:
- the base period reporting data is collected;
- an economic-mathematical model of the planned indicator is being developed;
- on the basis of the economic-mathematical model, forecasting of the planned indicator is carried out and its various variants are analyzed;
- an expert evaluation of the results is carried out;
- a planned decision is made (one of the variants of the planned indicator is chosen).
Only the main factors should be included in the economic-mathematical model. The quality of models is tested in practice, and it shows that complex models with many parameters are often unsuitable for practical use. Planning of the main financial indicators on the basis of economic and mathematical modeling is the basis for the functioning of automated control systems.
The most used in planning are optimization models. The essence of the method of optimization of planned solutions is that several variants of planned calculations are first developed, and then the optimal one is chosen. In this case, different evaluation criteria can be applied:
- the minimum of the given costs;
- the maximum of the reduced profit;
- the minimum investment of capital with the greatest effectiveness of the result;
- minimum of current costs;
- minimum time for turnover of capital, i.e. acceleration of the turnover of funds;
- maximum income per 1 rub. invested capital;
- maximum profit per 1 rub. invested capital;
- maximum safety of financial resources, i.e. minimum financial losses (financial or currency risk).
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