Technologies for project management in conditions of uncertainty...

Project management technologies under uncertainty

Once the main project risks have been identified, a monitoring system has been established for indicators indicative of an increase (decrease) in the level of risk and a process of detection of new risks has been developed as the project develops, the task is to take measures or planning to respond to risks. This process means that procedures and methods for reducing risks and increasing the anti-crisis sustainability of the project will be developed. It is advisable to appoint a person responsible for this work or even create a group of people who will develop specific plans for the adopted risk reduction activities and monitor their implementation. This person or group should work closely with the project manager. Consider the main activities or technologies that are used to reduce the consequences or probabilities of occurrence of identified (or even unidentified) risks.

Monitoring and tracking risks

The task of this process is the identification and identification of risks, but their detection. When the level of threat is determined by risk assessment methods, a contingency plan is implemented. In the absence of such a plan, the risk is worked out by the method of bypass risk: through an unplanned response to a risk factor, which is called a corrective action. Risk monitoring is an ongoing process that takes place throughout the project, from start to finish. As the project progresses, the risks already identified are tracked and evaluated, along with monitoring of early warning indicators for a new assessment of the likelihood and consequences of risks.

Risk Aversion

This strategy should be understood literally as changing the project plan in such a way as to make risky events impossible. It is often a costly strategy, but effective. Suppose, in some project there is a threat of non-delivery in a given period of important for further work of metal structures. In order to remove this problem, it is possible to organize production of these parts on its own base, which, apparently, will lead to a rise in the cost of the project, but will allow to finish it on time with a guarantee. If the consequences of the disruption of the period are much more serious than the cost of the project (for example, it is necessary to finish the reconstruction of the stadium for important international competitions), this decision must be assessed as reasonable. However, the risk avoidance strategy is limited, and its application can generate new, unidentified risks (for example, in the case of self-fabricating steel structures, the risks of errors in the strength of welds are higher than in a specialized plant constantly engaged in such work).

Transfer of risk

The essence of the method is also to exclude the risk - transfer it to some other side for a reward. The most common form of risk transfer is insurance. Here the cost of the reward or insurance premium will directly depend on the probability of occurrence of the insurance event. Another way to transfer risk is to conclude a risk contract with an external supplier through a fixed fixed-price contract. If the risk event consists in raising the price (materials, energy, services, etc.), then the supplier will take the unfavorable consequences of such an event. The methods of transferring risk are also guarantees and guarantees, when a third party assumes the risks of damage caused by non-fulfillment of the terms of the contract, failure of the contract, etc.

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