Basic laws and the main phenomenon of the development of high-tech markets
High-tech market, like any other develops according to certain laws, which for several decades confirm their validity.
The first and perhaps most significant law for the development of high-tech markets is the law of Gordon Moore , the founder of Intel. According to this law, the number of transistors placed on an integrated circuit chip doubles every 18 months, which affects the performance of processors.
Moore's law is valid for the semiconductor industry, however, it demonstrates its influence on the development of other high-tech industries for which semiconductors serve as a technological base, for example, for the macro segment of gadgets of the home appliances and electronics market. However, in the past few years, Moore's law has failed. This is noticeable, first of all, by the corporation Intel which, with the development of nanotechnology, slowly develops the production of nanometer chips. The complication of the technological process leads to additional difficulties, which happened in the case of the 14-nanometer production, the plan for the development of which was not achieved due to technical difficulties, the essence of which was not disclosed. In 2014, at a press conference at the headquarters of Intel the leading developer of the company Marc Bor said: "Any specialist in the industry will confirm that with every new generation the difficulties become all serious .
The second law is the law of Robert Metcalf , the founder of 3Com , absorbed by HP . The law describes the network effect, which has become widespread in marketing. The number of unique links in the network with the number of nodes ( n ) can be mathematically expressed as n (n - 1)/2. This means that if one link in the network brings one conditional unit of benefit to a person, then for a group of 10 people this benefit is 45 conventional units. For high-tech marketing, this law would not mean anything, if not for the issue of the effectiveness of the diffusion (diffusion) of high-tech innovations in modern society. It's no secret that the future marketing of high technology and products will be based on the characteristics of the generation of consumers that will dominate the market. In the future, this is the generation Y (which is true for the United States high-tech market). Generation Y - are introverts involved in a large-scale social network, the information within which spreads with incredibly high speed. According to the latest research, the number of stable and effective social connections in the society, in terms of the quality of information transfer, is about 120 contacts, which is confirmed by the value of the Dunbar number - 150 contacts per person. However, the network of each representative of the generation Y has 200 to 1000 contacts, which in many times exceeds the optimal number for maintaining active relations. Such a superficial, but wide-ranging interaction leads to the fact that their influence, according to the Metcalfe law, on the processes of dissemination of information about high-tech products in society is enormous.
The third rule by Gene Gndal, former employee of IBM and founder Amdahl Corporation , is associated with the limitations of the growth of the performance of the computing system as a result of the increase in the number of calculators. In other words, from a certain point on, the addition of new nodes to the system increases the calculation time of the task. For the high-tech market, this law imposes restrictions on the infrastructure that ensures the functioning of high-tech products. This limitation at the present stage of the development of big data and the long-term development of IOT begins to play a determining role. Promotion of high-tech products integrated into 1T, requires marketing to participate in the parallel promotion of infrastructure projects, which allow to level the restrictions imposed by the law of Lndal.
In addition to laws in the high-tech market, there are a number of phenomena, the most interesting and significant of which is the phenomenon of consumer resistance - the unexpected reaction of the market to the launch of a high-tech product that depends not only on the characteristics of the product or technology. Resistance has a hard-to-predict nature, arises in the process of bringing a high-tech product to the market and largely determines its outcome.
Resistance sources are diverse:
• the characteristics of a high-tech product or technology;
• characteristics of the consumer (sectoral and final);
• Characterization of the production process, in which high technology is embedded;
• Compatibility with consumer and related technologies.
There are 10 characteristics of a high-tech product that are relevant to the consumer, which contribute to or inhibit consumption: 1) relative advantages; 2) compatibility;
3) perceived risk; 4) simplicity of approbation; 5) Communicative; 6) complexity; 7) reversibility; 8) modifiability; 9) implementation; 10) the effect of adopting other innovations. The evaluation of each characteristic for the innovation of mass market products is carried out once for a single product and is repeated as necessary. In the case of high-tech markets, the situation is different. High-tech products contain whole bundles technologies, which in themselves can cause resistance from consumers. This can easily be demonstrated by a hypothetical example of nanocoatings. Let's say that their color range is limited, they are more durable, cheaper, more durable than conventional coating. For car manufacturers, this is an excellent set of characteristics of nanomaterials that only contribute to its successful use in the automotive industry. However, for the end user, color can be the determining factor when choosing a car - a secondary nanoproduct. As a result, the absence of an important parameter will cause resistance on the part of the end user.
With regard to high technologies and products of the B2B market, where the characteristics of a high-tech product are considered from the point of view of significant technical features, an alternative approach to identifying their characteristics is often used. This approach is implemented within the framework of technology ranking and consists in the decomposition of technology to the level of significant technical features. This principle is used in the promotion of hypotheses in the framework of marketing research, in problem-solving and finding solutions in large consulting companies, as well as in the selection of the most promising technologies for transfer in the framework of technological audit.
But not only the characteristics of the most high-tech product are a source of resistance. Large corporations in the case of a high level of resistance from the end consumer work with its attitude towards innovation, given the consumer characteristics. Personality, attitude, value orientation, previous experience of consumption, perception, motivation, beliefs - the general characteristics of the consumer. They are fair both for members of the intra-industry network, and for members of the consumer network. Each consumer group: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, latecomers can be represented by the characteristics listed above. Each group has certain features: the early majority, the later majority and the latecomers are conservative to varying degrees, and innovators and early followers are progressive. Logically
assume that the resistance does not arise at the level of consumer characteristics, but in the process of transition from a progressive group of consumers to a conservative one, which was confirmed by the research of J. Moore. He revealed that the most difficult, surmountable, deep and meaningful gap exists between early followers and the early majority. The main reason for this gap lies in the relationship to technological innovation. Early adopters are prepared to put up with the mistakes and failures that accompany innovation in the market, and for the early majority, the most important thing is to increase, not destroy the technology of doing business.
In addition to the previously described, minor gaps are observed between innovators and early followers and between the early and late majority. The first break is due to the complexity of the product, when early followers do not see breakthrough, in their view, the future of technological innovation, since they are not technical specialists, and this prevents them from assessing all the advantages of innovation. The second gap is due to the lack of technical competence of the consumer - the necessary infrastructure and knowledge in the late majority.
Resistance arising in the process of gradual adoption of high technology or product by each consumer group, it is possible to overcome through the formation of the "correct" relations and perceptions in the case when it comes to members of the social network. Intra-industry communication network has a number of specific features, and the gaps that exist within it threaten the successful outcome of the market promotion of high-tech products.
1. The main representatives of the intra-branch network are conservatives. As a rule, most of them occupy leading posts.
2. If the members of the intra-branch network are grouped, it is rather a functional feature: decision-makers; Persons influencing the decision-making process; persons initiating the consideration of technological innovation; performers. Gaps in this case exist between the initiators of innovation and those who influence the decision.
3. Intra-industry communication network forms the relation to the results of activity of the production environment. Often this attitude is associated, for example, with the expectations of prospective efficiency from the introduction of technological innovation or, conversely, with fears of its negative consequences, which have no serious basis.
4. The level of dependence on the national characteristics of doing business, which form specific causes of resistance, is high.
Another production source of resistance to the implementation of high-tech products is the production environment. The production environment largely reflects the visible results of commercialization: profit growth, cost reduction - indicators that can be estimated fairly accurately. There are five significant characteristics that affect the market success of high-tech products:
1) the degree of infrastructure development (the level of depreciation of fixed assets of a specific production process);
2) the level of professional skills of the staff;
3) the vastness of links with the production processes of related industries;
4) the elasticity of demand for the price of the final product of the process;
5) the degree of dependence on raw materials suppliers.
Resistance of related industries is a chain reaction and is formed as a result of restructuring the production process or making investments by the company initiating a high-tech innovation. For example, the use of nanocatalysts in the manufacture of cyclopentanes entails an adjustment of the process for its preparation, and the use of a nanocatalyst based on palladium (metal-based nanocatalysts) may lead to a change in the technical characteristics of cyclopentene production facilities.
In conclusion, it is worth noting that the listed resistance is aggravated or, conversely, weakened by national and industry characteristics (conditions). These conditions form such a significant block of inevitable contradictions, as barriers. Barriers are a combination of the features of technical and economic development, the political and legislative structure of the country, its cultural and national specifics, which can not be influenced. These features analysts take as a given condition in which they form specific resistance in their form.
The high-tech market is developing according to three basic laws: Moore, Metcalf and Andal. Initially, they described the high-tech processes of different industries, but eventually proved their worth in other industries. However, not only laws create restrictions and allow us to identify the main trend in the development of the high-tech market. In this process, a difficultly predictable phenomenon interferes - an unexpected market reaction to the withdrawal of a high-tech product. This reaction, as a rule, has a negative character and forms a block in the way of the spread of innovative product or technology in the form of consumer resistance. Identifying their sources and deep understanding of the processes of their formation avoids the possible market failure of a high-tech product through the modification of the design itself and the formation of a correct Iutrbit perception.
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