The role of intuition in social foresight
In history, situations were not so rare when the intellect was unable to penetrate the essence of the process or phenomenon, and intuition came to the aid as "the highest revelation", as unconscious penetration (comprehension) into the future with the help of instinct and other components of the subconscious.
Until now, M. Nostradamus is considered an unsurpassed intuitive predictor of the future.
Michel Nostradamus (1503-1566) is a real person and historically respected. As a doctor, he actually stopped the plague epidemic in France, which earned him considerable fame. His warnings he began to write in 1550 in a state of breaking, having experienced many misfortunes and having already lost his family from the epidemic. The book of prophecies containing more than 900 predictions was published by M. Nostradamus in 1555 and outlined the end of the world in 3797. His work contains a number of such statements, which may even be relevant to our time. For example, we quote the words of quatrain 2.10 (translated by V. Zavalishin): "It's bitter for me to say that the brutal eras/Will again take hold of the rebellious land/And the slavish atmosphere will reign/Under the mask of love and freedom big".
In the XX century. became known intuitive prophecies of the Italian futurist P. Ubaldi.
Pietro Ubaldi (1896-1972) studied law at the University of Rome, but at the same time was fond of philosophy, physics, history of religion, ancient languages. After receiving a diploma, he wrote a series of essays on theology, biology, cosmogony, history of philosophy and ethics. I paid serious attention to the social problems of my time. In 1931, 11. Ubaldi wrote in his diary that his pen is driven by an "inner voice". He warned doctors that further contamination of the atmosphere would lead to an outbreak of cancer that would become a scourge of citizens. Earlier, P. Ubaldi condemned deforestation and reckless exploitation of the earth's interior. Long before the Second World War, when there was still no gunpowder in the air, he wrote that war was inevitable, for the whole world was busy searching for terrible means of destruction. In his opinion, people began to have a huge destructive potential, but they got moral self-discipline. However, P. Ubaldi predicted not the decline of Europe, but its subsequent revival. In the mid-1930's. He wrote about the imminent opposition of the axis "Berlin-Rome" red Moscow. The axis will shed a lot of blood, but inevitably break, and then there will come another dialectic confrontation - the USSR and the US. With peace between the two great powers and disarmament, long-awaited social justice will come.
From the social prophecies Ubaldi's ideas about religion are attractive: in the 1930s. he predicted that by the end of the century, religion would stop fighting with science. The gap between the atheistic and religious knowledge of the surrounding world will be overcome to the benefit of all people. It will be a victory over the lack of spirituality of the civilization of the 20th century.
What can be said about such a product of human consciousness as intuition, and its role in social foresight?
At present, there are several theories (concepts) of intuition, which are called to explain the essence and content of the latter in its own way: as epistemological, mystical, as the primary supra-rational stage of comprehension of "whole being" etc. Modern scientific ideas do not disprove the possibilities of "instant grasp" truth, according to define intuition as an extremely important moment of a complex and unconscious in its mechanism of interaction of feelings, reason and experience. Sometimes it is interpreted as a specific focus of knowledge, which, in its essence, is not the initial stage of the latter, but a transitional link from one level to the next. Under the influence of the ideas of existentialism (M. Heidegger, J.-P. Sartre) intuition lost its epistemological characteristics and became a special way of being a person in the world, which made it possible to shift it into the language of sociology.For a long time this phenomenon was explained by the intuition theory, whose supporters believed that intuition is irrational, that it is necessary to focus not so much on reason, thinking as on "skimming sympathy" .
Further study of intuition has shown that it can manifest in a form based on feelings. This is quite typical for interpersonal communication both in the family and at work, when the smallest details in the relationships of people gradually form a general impression of the actions and behavior of others, on the basis of which the expectations of future events and possible changes are built.
Intuition in social foresight is based on on rational thinking ("intellectual intuition"), so insight does not come simply, but as a specially meaningful reality, information, as, for example, it happened with DI Mendeleyev in the process of discovery of the periodic system of elements.
However, it is necessary to know those restrictions that accompany intuition as a method of cognition, as a form of social foresight. Intuition can acquire strength prejudice, delusions , if, being effective in relation to one social process, will be implicitly transferred to other social processes and phenomena.
Intuition can turn into projecting, if you do not rely on a significant information base. In this case, it becomes akin to charlatanry, which operates with random, little related information, relies on speculation and arbitrary interpretation of the events that come under the hand.
In this regard, it is important to understand the role and meaning of innate ideas which are given to thinking initially, are not acquired from experience and can not be changed based on experienced knowledge. Usually these are ready-made ideas or concepts by which people operate as true, ideas embedded in thinking as potential abilities and inclinations. The main thing is that these opportunities be realized, seen and maintained, and also used to decide the future of this or that process or phenomenon.
It is the use of intuition (based on a large number of disparate data) that one can argue that in the 21st century, social confrontations will shift from interracial, interethnic contradictions towards religious confrontation (and even religious wars) between the world's largest confessions.
As for the sociology of management, it is clear that intuition is used by almost every leader (consciously or spontaneously), including solving not only promising, but also operational problems of the development of their organization. The more the manager will know about the virtues and limitations of intuition (not only his own, but also his subordinates), the more successfully he will be able to apply it in his transformational activity.
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